Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
CLS declines delaying FX cutoff as US stock changes loom
CLS Group, the largest currency settlement system, said on Tuesday it will not change its cut-off time for payment instructions for foreign exchange trades, dealing a blow to foreign asset managers hoping for some reprieve from a new U.S. rule putting them at risk of transaction failure. Beginning May 28, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires investors start settling U.S. equity transactions one day after the trade, or T+1, instead of the current two days. source : investing
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to a More Than 11-Year Low
source : Bloomberg
Visualizing the growth of $100, by asset class returns across U.S. equities, bonds, real estate, gold and cash since 1970.
source : visual capitalist
SEC delays decision on spot bitcoin ETF options
American regulators are again delaying a decision by 45 days on whether to allow options on spot bitcoin ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission published a notice Monday saying that it "designates May 29, 2024 as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove," allowing the New York Stock Exchange to start listing options on spot bitcoin ETFs. source : theblock
China and Hong Kong stocks lost nearly $5 trillion in 3 years — more than India’s market cap
Stocks in China and Hong Kong sold off a massive $4.8 trillion in market capitalization since 2021, which according to HSBC, is more than the value of the Indian stock market. Indian stocks have rallied amid broader optimism about the country’s growth. Despite a subdued global IPO market, research from EY showed Indian stock exchanges also had the most IPOs in 2023. https://lnkd.in/eFCFMe2s Source: CNBC
No one holds Russell 2000 (small-caps) stocks any more...
Source: Bob Elliott, BofA, Factset
Do people appreciate how speculative "Small Cap Growth" has become?
The Russell 2000 Growth has 28% in negative earners. Prior to the GFC, negative earners were 15-18% of the index. Even in a depression (2009), it only went up to 26%. How many will "grow" into bankruptcy court? Source: Jeff Weniger
