Nvidia, $NVDA, has already added another $130 billion of market cap in 2024 and we're only 6 trading days in
Since its low in October 2022, $NVDA has officially added $1 TRILLION in market cap. As of today, the stock is officially up 400% from its 2022 lows. In 2 years, Nvidia has gone from barely being a top 30 company by market cap to being the 6th largest public company in the world. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The average price of a used Tesla has declined 18 months in a row
moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $36,661 today (-46%). $TSLA Source: Charlie Bilello
Fed member Bostic just said that he sees just 2 interest rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 50 basis points
As highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter -> This ONE THIRD the amount of rate cuts that futures are currently pricing-in. Bostic also said that he is "not comfortable declaring victory" against inflation at this point. Meanwhile, markets see a base case of 150 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. There is even a ~24% chance of 175 basis points in rate cuts. The Fed to market disconnect is widening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Global Energy Shock Graph (only till 2020 unfortunately) Life without fossil fuels is not for tomorrow
Source: Willem Middelkoop
Key Events This Week
1. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday 2. crudeoil Inventories - Wednesday 3. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday (Crucial data ahead of the January Fed meeting). 4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 5. December PPI Inflation data - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed Members Speak 7. Earning season Kick-off with some big banks publishing on Friday - see below Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Earnings Whispers
This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more
Source: Bespoke
One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here
As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negative… With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets.
US interest rate futures are beginning to shift back in the less dovish direction
Odds of 7 or 8 interest rate cuts in 2024 have halved this week. Also, odds of rate cuts beginning this month are down to just 7%. However, the base case still shows 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 basis points in 2024. This is double the 3 rate cuts forecasted at the Fed's latest meeting. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
