Moderna's stock is now down 81% from its peak and below the price it was trading at when the FDA issued an EUA for its Covid-19 vaccine back in December 2020
$MRNA Source: Charlie Bilello
Here's an index that represents the median stock closing last week at the lowest levels in a year
Source: J-C Parets
Standard Chartered is ramping up its bullish Bitcoin prediction
Targeting as much as $120,000 by the end of 2024 — almost quadruple the current price — as increasingly cash-rich miners reduce sales of the token. “Increased miner profitability per BTC mined means they can sell less while maintaining cash inflows, reducing net BTC supply and pushing BTC prices higher,” Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered wrote Monday.
The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level since June 2021 this week, down over $1 trillion from the peak in April 2022
Annual changes in the Fed's balance sheet since 2002... Source: Charlie Bilello
The bull-market is one-year old and the leadership has been unusual
• Since 1980, every single end to a bear market and start of a new bull has been accompanied by a broad rally in stocks, with the Equal Weight Index and small-caps stocks outperforming the S&P 500. • This time is different: the S&P 500 is heavily influenced by the 10 largest companies, which have enjoyed outsized returns. The so-called "magnificent seven" (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla) are up 77% over the past 12 months. But the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which assigns the same weight to all the stocks that are included, is up a more modest 11% for the same timeframe. Small-cap stocks are up 5%. Source: Edward Jones
US Treasuries were bid this week due to the search of "safe havens" on the back of Middle East turmoil
However, ugly auctions on Thursday came as a harsh remainder of the unfavourable supply/demand situation faced by US Treasuries. On the supply side, there is a tsunami of notes and bonds that is going to flood the market. And it is occurring while the Fed, under its QT program, is letting about $60 billion a month in maturing Treasury securities roll off the balance sheet without replacement. With the Fed reducing its holdings, that tsunami of notes and bonds being issued will have to find buyers, and those buyers will have to be enticed by yields. Unless inflation and growth slow down meaningfully, yields are unlikely to drop aggressively. Source: www.wolfstreet.com, Bloomberg
Two different years
Two different reactions by growth stocks. Source: J-C Parets
Maximum 3-month total return 60/40 nominal drawdown
Source: TME, Haver
