The US housing market affordability index is now ~10% BELOW the 2006 lows.
Even if prices fell 30%, housing affordability would still be above pre-pandemic levels. It’s a tough time to be a homebuyer in the US. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
China is more dependent on real estate than any other country
Almost 30% of Chinese GDP dependent on #realestate combined with 50 million vacant apartments is a dangerous mix. Source: FT
The fact that Chinese State property developers are also in big troubles complicates the issue for the China real estate
Mainly, as it reduces their ability to support the sector by taking over incomplete projects by private sector. Source: Bloomberg
Looking at the recent sales transactions, house prices have accelerated significantly in the last 4 months to record levels, now growing at almost a 10% annualized rate
As a remainder, shelter costs / rents jave been putting upward pressure on core CPI and are expected to ease. Really? Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Only 16% of Californians can afford to buy a home, a situation that is unfortunately not unique to the state, but where they are leading the way
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
The cost of both buying and renting a house in America has skyrocketed since 2020
Buying a house now costs $2,700/month on average, up an alarming ~86% in 3 years. Renting a house now costs $1,850/month on average, also up ~25% in 3 years. Owning a home has become a luxury. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Property values in commercial real estate are beyond bear market territory
- Office buildings are down nearly 30% over the last year ALONE. - Apartments down 15% and underperforming malls. - Hotels are flat as markets await a potential drop in consumers spending. - Real estate markets are feeling the effects of higher interest rates. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
US Property loans are so unappealing that banks want to dump them
Lenders including GS and JPM. have been trying to sell debt backed by offices, hotels and even apartments in recent months, but many are finding that tidying up loan books is no easy feat when concerns about commercial real estate have surged.
Maturing loans that will need to be refinanced is a major concern in a high-interest-rates environment. Source: Bloomberg, Green Street
