Q2 US earnings calendar by The Transcript
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Thursday night US presidential election debate in one image
Source: USA today
US yield curve steepens sharply after US presidential debate w/PredictIt’s live betting odds have jumped in Trump’s favor to almost 60%
US 2s/10s spread jumps by 7bps to -36bps. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: US new home sales plummeted -11.3% month-over-month to 619,000 in May, well below the estimated -0.2% decrease.
This was the largest decline since September 2022 when new home sales fell by ~14%. Year-over-year sales dropped by a whopping 16.5%, the most since February 2023. This also follows the Pending Home Sales decline to their lowest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, the supply of homes available for sale rose to 481,000, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US housing market is slowing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
American excess savings reached $2.1 trillion in 2021, but they ran dry months ago.
The pandemic savings cushions that helped Americans weather high prices in recent years have worn through, contributing to a loss of consumer firepower that’s rippling through the economy. Delinquencies are rising. Executives are flagging caution among shoppers in recent earnings calls, and retail sales barely increased in May after falling the month prior. Economists forecast solid inflation-adjusted consumer spending in data out Friday, helped by lower gasoline prices, but that would follow an outright decline in April. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
Wondering why the US stockmarket is eating the world?
Here's a visualisation of the digital trade divide... Markets & Mayhem
The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet at the fastest pace ever:
Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by $1.71 trillion to $7.25 trillion, a 19% decline. By comparison, from 2017 to 2019 the Fed’s balance sheet runoff amounted to 16%. However, the Fed's balance sheet still stands $3.1 TRILLION above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the Fed slowed the pace of runoff from $95 billion to $60 billion a month at the beginning of June. Will the Fed's balance sheet ever reach pre-pandemic levels?
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Treasury Market
Treasury liquidity is now at its worst point in AT LEAST the last 14 years, surpassing even the onset of Covid Source: Barchart, Robin Brooks
