As economic data continues to underwhelm (ISM Manufacturing, JOLTs), the BBG US economic surprise index has plunged to its lowest level in 5 years.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The US could be on the brink of the civil war according to Ray Dalio
In an interview given to the FT on 16 May, billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates warns about the risk of a civil war breaking in the US. Source: FT
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise index is about the most negative since 2019.
DB's Jim Reid: Yesterday's ISM manufacturing report "was definitely one that dampened optimism about the state of the US economy right now. And it follows a run of weaker US data over recent days." Source: Bloomberg, Liza Abramowitz
US job openings have just seen a sharp move down today.
JOLTS 8.06 million openings vs 8.4 million expectations. This is rather a large miss. This kind of a steep declining has only been seen 3 times since 2000. The jobs market continues to soften. Source: Game of Trades
Is US Consumer Discretionary vs Staples giving us a warning sign about the US consumer?
Source: Bloomberg
How "strong" is the labor market?
The US economy has seen an unemployment rate below 4% for 27 straight months, longest streak since the 1967. The longest streak of below 4% unemployment occurred in 1951 and lasted for 35 months. On Friday, the BLS will release labor market data for May, and estimates believe unemployment will be 3.9%. If unemployment comes in line or below expectations, it would mark the 2nd longest streak in history. Meanwhile, most Americans argue that the economy is getting worse. All eyes are on labor market data on Friday. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, DB
Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP estimate plunges to 1.8% from 2.7% on May 31, and from 4.1% two weeks ago
Source: zerohedge
BREAKING: U.S. Banking System >>> FDIC warns that 63 Lenders are on the brink of insolvency due to banks sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses
This is $39 billion higher than the $478 billion recorded in Q4 2023. The surge was driven by higher residential mortgage-backed securities losses held by banks due to rising mortgage rates. Q1 2024 also marked the 10th consecutive quarter of unrealized losses, an even longer streak than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As “higher for longer” returns, unrealized losses are likely to continue rising. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
