US Rate-cut expectations were revised downward last week.
For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. This also happens to be the first time that markets align with the latest Fed guidance. Odds of a rate cut in this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in May are down to ~7%. Just 3 months ago, markets saw SEVEN rate cuts in 2024 with rate cuts beginning this month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
us bank deposits have stabilized and risen since the 2023 banking panic, showing that confidence is slowly returning.
Source: BofA, Markets & Mayhem
The US is now producing more oil than any country has in history
Source: Michel A.Arouet, Chartr
Where Inflation Is... and Isn't ...
source : yahoofinance, acemaxx
The US Producer Price Index surged by 0.6% MoM in February 2024, marking the largest increase since August and surpassing expectations.
Goods prices rose notably, led by a 4.4% surge in energy costs. Meanwhile, services edged up by 0.3%. Despite a slowdown in core rate growth, yearly inflation accelerated to 1.6%, surpassing forecasts. YoY: 1.6% vs 1.1% est. MoM: 0.6% vs 0.3% est. Core YoY: 2% vs 1.9% est. Core MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% est. Bottom-line >>> PPI came in stronger than expected driven by a surge in energy costs and higher insurance costs among other categories. Not a breakout to the upside, but declining trend is leveling off.
Visualizing the Rise of the U.S. as Top Crude Oil Producer - by Elements & Visual Capitalist
Over the last decade, the United States has established itself as the world’s top producer of crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This infographic illustrates the rise of the U.S. as the biggest oil producer, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Where us inflation is and where it isn’t
Source: Evan, Yahoo Finance
A record number of Americans are taking hardship withdrawals from their 401k.
The figure has nearly doubled over the last four years. 40% of these hardship withdrawals are to avoid foreclosure. Source: Nick Gerli, Wall Street Journal
