Buying a home is now 52% more expensive than renting, the highest premium on record (note: the premium peaked at 33% during the last housing bubble in 2006)
Source: Charlie Bilello
Bond Market's Best Month Since 1980s Sparks Cross-Asset Rally
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books. Investors frantically bid up the price of Treasuries, agency and mortgage debt, sparking the best month since the 1980s and igniting a powerful pan-markets rally in everything from stocks to credit to emerging markets. Source: Bloomberg
US GDP update shows US economy grew at more robust annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3, revised from +4.9% and after +2.1% QoQ in Q2
The Q3 contribution from inventories was +1.4%, revised from +1.3%, after 0% in Q2. Contribution from consumers +2.4% revised down from prev 2.7%. Contribution from net exports was -0.04%, revised from -0.08%, after +0.04% in Q2. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.36 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended less than 6 months ago
Fast approaching $34 trillion. Source: Charlie Bilello
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Are US homes sellers so desperate?
Per Bloomberg, US Treasury issuance next year is expected to reach $1.9 trillion...
Excess supply of US Treasuries remains a key downside risk for bonds (and thus for equities given the still high correlation between the 2). Note that every Treasury auction is now very closely monitored by investors with some immediate consequences on market returns (e.g last week: strong auction triggered a drop in US Treasury yields on Wednesday and a rise in sp500). Source picture: Markets Mayhem
As we moved into 2024, one downside risk needs to be kept in mind:
tightening monetarypolicy cycle often operates with a lag. As shown on the chart below, stocks typically plunged many months after rates peaked in the past. Source. Bloomberg, Cheddar Flow
US households still have an estimated $433 billion in excess savings remaining from the 2020-21 stimulus programs
Source: TME
