A mixed message from the July US jobs report: the US economy added 187k jobs according to Establishment survey, a tiny bit below Street’s +200k forecast
According to the Household survey, the number of employed people rose by 268k. Because of this 268k number, unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6% in June and below estimated 3.6%. Wages ran hot, coming in at +4.4% YoY (vs Street +4.2% and vs +4.4% in June). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Nasdaq has now been 'overbought' for 60 days
Its longest period since the run-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble...
Who is the most active congressional trader?
Well, the answer lies with Josh Gottheimer, a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives in New Jersey's 5th congressional district. 📈His trade volume is significantly higher than the next most active trader💰！ Source: Genuine Impact
The slow-motion US banking crisis is still not out of the woods...
Indeed, US Money Market funds saw a third straight week of inflows ($29 billion this past week) to a new record high of $5.15 trillion...Retail money-market funds saw inflows for the 15th straight week (and institutional funds also saw a second straight week of inflows)... Usage of The Fed's emergency bank bailout facility rose by $606 million to a new record high at $106 billion... And as highlighted on the chart below, the decoupling between money-market fund inflows and bank deposits continues.. Could the current bloodbath in bonds be the catalyst for another round of pain? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
CTAs are long net $58BN in US equities, just shy of the upper-end of the 5-year range
Could they trigger an acceleration of the equity sell-off if the S&P 500 breaks some key support level? Here are the key levels to watch according to GS: Short-term threshold = 4440 (-1.6%) Medium-term threshold (the most important one) = 4257 (-5.6%) Long-term threshold = 4240 (-6.1%) Source: Goldman
“.. when the S&P 500 is +10% or better YTD at the July-end mark.”
Source: Carl Quintanilla, Bloomberg
Do US cyclical equities look vulnerable given the extent of growth optimism currently priced in vs. the weakness of ISM manufacturing?
Source chart: Goldman
Despite the strong upward move of the Citigroup US economic Surprises index and the strong YTD performance of financial assets, there are signs that things are that rosy for the SU economy
Source: TaviCosta
