September rate-cut odds of 99.9% yesterday have now fallen down to 88.5%.
From "guaranteed" to "not so fast." Source: Bespoke
An important remainder by Otavio Costa
Inflation data came in hotter than expected, but it is not just about tariffs. Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. You don’t solve it with a 7% fiscal deficit and a money supply hitting record highs. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
US margin debt has hit $1 trillion for the first time in history.
This is a ~65% surge over the last 3 years. Source: Global Markets Investors
🔴 Scott Bessent says the U.S. should be "150, 175 bps lower" on the Fed's rate ‼️
😨 Vows to cut 50 bps at next Fed meeting. ⚠️ Bashes critics saying he can't be head of treasury and Fed at the same time - “If Elon can run two things at once, why can't I?” 🚀 🚀 🚀 Source: Coinvo
The us budget deficit disaster continues with renewed momentum.
Source: zerohedge through Peter Mallouk on X
US small-caps are breaking higher in a substantial factor rotation.
As highlighted by Andreas Steno Larsen on X, being short Russell 2000 index is a very crowded trade. A short-squeeze in the making?
🔴 US President Trump says he is looking at reclassifying marijuana.
The weed stocks and AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF ($YOLO) surged yesterday. ▶️ President Donald Trump said Monday his administration was “looking at reclassification” of marijuana and intends to make a decision in the upcoming weeks. ▶️ “It’s a very complicated subject base,” he said during a press briefing. “I’ve heard great things having to do with medical and bad things having to do with just about everything else.” ▶️ His comments come after a Friday Wall Street Journal report indicated Trump was considering reclassifying the drug as less dangerous. Source: Markets & Mayhem, Politico
Trump Nobel Peace Prize odds soar to record highs.
12% chance. Source: Polymarkets
