Nasty print on the US ISM services... sounds "stagflationary"
US ISM Services PMI Actual 50.1 (Forecast 51.5, Previous 50.8) US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 69.9 (Forecast 66.5, Previous 67.5) US ISM Services Employment Actual 46.4 (Forecast -, Previous 47.2) US ISM Services New Orders Actual 50.3 (Forecast -, Previous 51.3) Source: ISM
The S&P 493 – that’s the S&P 500 excl “Magnificent 7” – is expected to deliver just 2-3% net income growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4.
That’s slower than inflation, meaning most of the market is barely growing in real terms. Measured against this, US equities are quite expensive! Source: Strategas thru HolgerZ
US companies announced share repurchases totaling $166 billion last month, the highest dollar value on record for July ...
For the year, announced buybacks stand at $926 billion, which is $108 billion ahead of the previous year-to-date record set in 2022. Source: Bloomberg, Birinyi Associates, RBC
US earnings season update: so far so good...
Companies are beating, EPS growth is more than double so far vs expectations.. but beats are barely getting paid, while misses are getting pounded a little worse. Source: Goldman Sachs, RBC
Markets have fully priced three Fed rate cuts by the January meeting. That's a cut at three of the next four FOMC meetings.
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
US Factory Orders Tumbled In June By The Most Since COVID
Source: zerohedge
US federal government tariff revenue is skyrocketing
Customs and certain excise taxes collected in the US SPIKED to $29.6 billion in July, an all-time high. On an annualized basis, tariff revenue is running at ~$310 billion, more than 3 TIMES higher than a year ago. Source: Global Markets Investor
US stocks have never been higher in August under a second term president in a post-election year.
6 for 6 lower. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT
