Syz the moment

If Canada raises their tariffs, it will be whatever that rate is PLUS 35%. "Thank you for your attention to this matter." Source: Eric Daugherty on X

“Europe has gone from 90 per cent US GDP to 65 per cent over 10 or 15 years. That’s not good,” Dimon said at an event in Dublin organised by the Irish foreign ministry. “You’re losing.” The comments from Dimon, one of the most influential voices in global finance, underscore the challenges facing the EU as it battles to invigorate its economy. Mario Draghi, the continent’s former top central banker, last year demanded a new industrial strategy for Europe with annual investment of €800bn to maintain competitiveness with the US and China. “We’ve got this huge strong market and our companies are big and successful, have huge kinds of scale that are global. You have that, but less and less,” Dimon said. It is an even blunter message from Dimon than he made in his most recent annual shareholder meeting in April, where he said “Europe has some serious issues to fix”, and urged European nations to “significantly reform their economies so they can grow”. Source: FT

S&P 500: All-time high NASDAQ: All-time high BITCOIN: All-time high GOLD: All-time high HOME PRICES: All-time high Time for the Fed to cut rates... Source: Geiger Capital

Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

Calling the trial of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt.” Responding to criticism from President Trump, Brazil’s president said: “We don’t want an emperor.” Donald Trump said Brazil would be subject to US tariffs of 50 per cent on its goods, accusing the country of treating former president Jair Bolsonaro unfairly. In the eighth letter published to social media on Wednesday, Trump said Bolsonaro was a “Highly Respected Leader throughout the world during his Term.” “This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote. He added that the tariff would be applied “in part” because of Brazil’s “insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans.” Bolsonaro is on trial over an alleged coup plot, which prosecutors say aimed to keep him in power after losing an election in 2022. Brazil was previously facing a tariff of 10 per cent. Source: FT

Bilateral Leverage and Trade Balance: The UK, as a single nation, has less negotiating power than the EU, a bloc of 27 countries with a larger collective market. The US can secure concessions more easily from the UK. Additionally, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK (e.g., $25.9 billion in goods in 2024), while it has a significant trade deficit with the EU (e.g., $209 billion in 2024). Lower UK tariffs align with maintaining favorable trade dynamics, while higher EU tariffs aim to address the deficit. Post-Brexit Alignment: Since Brexit, the UK has sought closer ties with the US to offset its reduced EU market access. The US leverages this to secure a favorable deal, offering exemptions (e.g., auto, aerospace) and lower tariffs (e.g., 10% baseline vs. EU’s potential 20-50%). The UK’s flexibility, unbound by EU regulations, allows quicker agreement on US priorities like digital trade and agriculture. Geopolitical Strategy: The US views the UK as a key ally in countering EU influence and promoting a US-led trade framework. Lower tariffs strengthen the US-UK “special relationship,” especially in defense and intelligence (e.g., AUKUS), while higher EU tariffs pressure the EU to concede on issues like steel and digital services taxes. Source: SuperGrok

Source: The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole84

▶️ Front end of the curve (short-term rates): the growing influence of the "shadow Fed chair" on short-term rates ▶️ Long end of the curve (30Y): The mounting fiscal disarray It seems that risk assets and store of values are the main beneficiaries of this backdrop. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa