ALERT: There’s only 8 days remaining until the tariff negotiation deadline
Betting markets are placing an 82% chance of US-China reaching an agreement before that deadline. Source: Bravos Research
The Dollar posted its steepest first-half decline in over five decades, as erratic policy shifts and signs of slowing economic activity continue to erode confidence in the reserve currency.
The Dollar Index DXY Index fell 10.8% in H1 2025 as the Dollar weakened sharply against major developed-market currencies. The Greenback tumbled 14.4% against the Swiss franc, 13.8% against the Euro and 9.7% versus the Pound. Emerging-market currencies also rallied, delivering some of their strongest gains in years. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In May, US personal income dropped by 0.4%, the first month-over-month decline in almost 4 years.
Source: Steven Rattner @SteveRattner
WHO RUNS THE OIL WORLD?
The US isn’t just flipping burgers - it's pumping 22.7 million barrels of oil a day, more than double Saudi Arabia or Russia. That’s 22% of the world’s supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia trail with 10.7 and 10.5 million barrels/day. Canada’s in 4th (6.0), followed by China (5.3), Iran (4.7), Iraq (4.5), and Brazil (4.3). Total world production? 102.8 million barrels a day. Which means the U.S. alone is doing over a fifth of the heavy lifting. Source: Statista thru Evan on X
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT JUST SAID:
• US tariffs on China: 30% • China’s tariffs on US: 10%
BREAKING: US INFLATION DATA RELEASED!
• May PCE rises to 2.3%, in-line with expectations • Core PCE inflation rises to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%. PCE inflation is now rising for the first time since February 2025 YoY Growth: PCE (May), 2.3% Vs. 2.3% Est. (prev. 2.1%) Core PCE, 2.7% Vs. 2.6% Est. (prev. 2.5%) MoM Growth: PCE (May), 0.1% Vs. 0.1% Est. (prev. 0.1%) Core PCE, 0.2% Vs. 0.1% Est. (prev. 0.1%) Source: Macrobond
Majority of Fed Officials Leaning Against July Interest-Rate Cut -
Bloomberg
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Republicans in Congress on Thursday to remove the so-called “revenge tax” from President Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill
The provision would grant Trump the authority to tax foreign holdings of US investments as a way to retaliate against countries imposing new taxes on US companies operating overseas. Bessent argued that the provision, known as Section 899, was no longer necessary after the Trump administration reached a deal with G7 nations at last week’s summit to exempt US companies from a 15% global corporate minimum tax championed by the Biden administration. “After months of productive dialogue with other countries on the OECD Global Tax Deal, we will announce a joint understanding among G7 countries that defends American interests,” the Treasury secretary wrote on X. “President Trump paved the way for this historic achievement.” Source: New York Post
