All-time Highs
S&P 500: All-time high NASDAQ: All-time high BITCOIN: All-time high GOLD: All-time high HOME PRICES: All-time high Time for the Fed to cut rates... Source: Geiger Capital
Most Fed officials see rate cut as appropriate this year: FOMC minutes
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that the United States will impose a 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1
Calling the trial of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt.” Responding to criticism from President Trump, Brazil’s president said: “We don’t want an emperor.” Donald Trump said Brazil would be subject to US tariffs of 50 per cent on its goods, accusing the country of treating former president Jair Bolsonaro unfairly. In the eighth letter published to social media on Wednesday, Trump said Bolsonaro was a “Highly Respected Leader throughout the world during his Term.” “This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote. He added that the tariff would be applied “in part” because of Brazil’s “insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans.” Bolsonaro is on trial over an alleged coup plot, which prosecutors say aimed to keep him in power after losing an election in 2022. Brazil was previously facing a tariff of 10 per cent. Source: FT
The US is willing to impose lower tariffs on the UK than the EU primarily due to strategic, economic, and political factors:
Bilateral Leverage and Trade Balance: The UK, as a single nation, has less negotiating power than the EU, a bloc of 27 countries with a larger collective market. The US can secure concessions more easily from the UK. Additionally, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK (e.g., $25.9 billion in goods in 2024), while it has a significant trade deficit with the EU (e.g., $209 billion in 2024). Lower UK tariffs align with maintaining favorable trade dynamics, while higher EU tariffs aim to address the deficit. Post-Brexit Alignment: Since Brexit, the UK has sought closer ties with the US to offset its reduced EU market access. The US leverages this to secure a favorable deal, offering exemptions (e.g., auto, aerospace) and lower tariffs (e.g., 10% baseline vs. EU’s potential 20-50%). The UK’s flexibility, unbound by EU regulations, allows quicker agreement on US priorities like digital trade and agriculture. Geopolitical Strategy: The US views the UK as a key ally in countering EU influence and promoting a US-led trade framework. Lower tariffs strengthen the US-UK “special relationship,” especially in defense and intelligence (e.g., AUKUS), while higher EU tariffs pressure the EU to concede on issues like steel and digital services taxes. Source: SuperGrok
US debt has consistently risen regardless of which party is in power
Source: The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole84
Great chart by Otavio (Tavi) Costa which summarizes very well what the Treasury market it currently trying to tell us:
▶️ Front end of the curve (short-term rates): the growing influence of the "shadow Fed chair" on short-term rates ▶️ Long end of the curve (30Y): The mounting fiscal disarray It seems that risk assets and store of values are the main beneficiaries of this backdrop. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
Handy tariff "state of play" sheet from BBG.
Source: Neil Sethi @neilksethi
The world's biggest tourism economies last year.
Source: Civixplorer
