ADP Yesterday -- "We use social security numbers and we process paychecks. Private sector lost -33,000 jobs in June."
NFP Today -- "You're wrong! We do phone survey. Sometimes they answer, sometimes they don't. We show private sector created +74,000 jobs in June." Source: Jaguar Analytics
▶️ A "pro-growth" job report ‼️stocks surged and bonds sold off after the US economy blew past expectations, adding 147,000 jobs in June (vs 106k expected).
▶️The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% as the private-sector survey showed 93,000 new jobs created, and labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.3%, suggesting fewer people are actively working or looking for work. ▶️Meanwhile, wage growth came in softer than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 3.7% year-over-year. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
If you follow and believe in the Presidential Cycle..
Source: Nautilus Research through RBC
Vietnam is to pay 20% tariffs on all goods sent to the US. Meanwhile, the US will get total access to the Vietnamese markets - they can sell US products there for 0% tariffs.
Moreover, the US will charge Vietnam a 40% tariff on 'any transhipping', a steep levy that could rattle countries still hoping to secure significant relief from Trump’s 'liberation day' tariffs. Source: FT
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the United States has struck a trade deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on the southeast Asian country’s imports to the U.S.
*ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: -33K vs 98K exp. First negative print since March 2023. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg, CNBC
Huge ADP miss… the trend is clear.
*ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: -33K vs 98K exp. First negative print since March 2023. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg, CNBC
ALERT: There’s only 8 days remaining until the tariff negotiation deadline
Betting markets are placing an 82% chance of US-China reaching an agreement before that deadline. Source: Bravos Research
The Dollar posted its steepest first-half decline in over five decades, as erratic policy shifts and signs of slowing economic activity continue to erode confidence in the reserve currency.
The Dollar Index DXY Index fell 10.8% in H1 2025 as the Dollar weakened sharply against major developed-market currencies. The Greenback tumbled 14.4% against the Swiss franc, 13.8% against the Euro and 9.7% versus the Pound. Emerging-market currencies also rallied, delivering some of their strongest gains in years. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
