Huge ADP miss… the trend is clear.
*ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: -33K vs 98K exp. First negative print since March 2023. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg, CNBC
ALERT: There’s only 8 days remaining until the tariff negotiation deadline
Betting markets are placing an 82% chance of US-China reaching an agreement before that deadline. Source: Bravos Research
The Dollar posted its steepest first-half decline in over five decades, as erratic policy shifts and signs of slowing economic activity continue to erode confidence in the reserve currency.
The Dollar Index DXY Index fell 10.8% in H1 2025 as the Dollar weakened sharply against major developed-market currencies. The Greenback tumbled 14.4% against the Swiss franc, 13.8% against the Euro and 9.7% versus the Pound. Emerging-market currencies also rallied, delivering some of their strongest gains in years. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In May, US personal income dropped by 0.4%, the first month-over-month decline in almost 4 years.
Source: Steven Rattner @SteveRattner
WHO RUNS THE OIL WORLD?
The US isn’t just flipping burgers - it's pumping 22.7 million barrels of oil a day, more than double Saudi Arabia or Russia. That’s 22% of the world’s supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia trail with 10.7 and 10.5 million barrels/day. Canada’s in 4th (6.0), followed by China (5.3), Iran (4.7), Iraq (4.5), and Brazil (4.3). Total world production? 102.8 million barrels a day. Which means the U.S. alone is doing over a fifth of the heavy lifting. Source: Statista thru Evan on X
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT JUST SAID:
• US tariffs on China: 30% • China’s tariffs on US: 10%
BREAKING: US INFLATION DATA RELEASED!
• May PCE rises to 2.3%, in-line with expectations • Core PCE inflation rises to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%. PCE inflation is now rising for the first time since February 2025 YoY Growth: PCE (May), 2.3% Vs. 2.3% Est. (prev. 2.1%) Core PCE, 2.7% Vs. 2.6% Est. (prev. 2.5%) MoM Growth: PCE (May), 0.1% Vs. 0.1% Est. (prev. 0.1%) Core PCE, 0.2% Vs. 0.1% Est. (prev. 0.1%) Source: Macrobond
Majority of Fed Officials Leaning Against July Interest-Rate Cut -
Bloomberg
