President Donald Trump has recently announced plans to implement "reciprocal tariffs"
aimed at addressing perceived trade imbalances between the United States and its trading partners. This policy intends to match the tariffs that other countries impose on U.S. exports by levying equivalent tariffs on imports from those nations. The goal is to promote fairness and encourage countries to reduce their tariffs on American goods. Source. Bloomberg, ChatGPT
WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average. Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels. Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC. Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000. That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period. Last week alone, claims surged +36%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
2025 US earnings estimates are tracking above the typical path.
Source: Goldman Sachs via @MikeZaccardi
US inflation decline has slowed but is NOT re-surging:
US inflation metrics which exclude outliers and one-time bumps as still declining but at a slower rate. January is also the seasonally worst month as firms tend to announce price raises at the start of the calendar year. Source: Global Markets Investor
BREAKING: January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%.
Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%. PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
On US inflation expectations, from @johnauthers daily note:
"The two-year breakeven has broken above 3% (the upper range of the Fed’s target) to its highest in two years, while the 10-year is also at a two-year high after reaching 2.5%. The breakeven for the five years starting five years hence, which the Fed tracks closely, remains anchored, but it’s obvious that markets are growing more jumpy about inflation." Source: Bloomberg, Mo El-Erian
Lower wage inflation and higher US unemployment rate ahead?
🚨 One US job market leading indicator is plummeting: The average weekly hours worked by Americans fell to 34.1, the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis and in line with the 2020 crisis low. Typically, hours worked decrease before LAYOFFS pick up...👇 Source: Global Markets Investor, Augur infinity
ALERT: New tenant rent data predicts CPI rent inflation by about 9 months
Currently, it’s pointing to a continued decline in rent inflation. And since rent is one of the biggest components of inflation, it suggests that inflation will keep trending lower Source: Bravos Research
