😱 The "shocking chart" of the day !!! 😱 US CPI index since the 1970's vs its trend line.
In order to 'average' out the recent period of high inflation at 2%, the fed would have to tolerate a period of time of deflation. But can they really afford deflation with $33T of debt and persistently high budget deficit? As mentioned by Peter Boockvar on X, once purchasing power is lost, it is lost forever because central bankers won't let you get it back... Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller inadvertently made that perfectly clear when he spoke on Friday. He told CNBC in an interview that "What's got me a little more concerned is inflation is running softer than I thought."... Bottom-line: It is very unlikely that inflation will come back to trend line in the foreseeable future. Perhaps the jumbo rate cut was also about making sure that the US economy doesn't fall into a deflationary trap... Welcome to the era of fiscal dominance Source chart: Bloomberg
🚨US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE USUALLY RISES BEFORE THE S&P 500 CORRECTION🚨
US jobless rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.2% in August near the highest in 3 years. In the past, when the unemployment rate was rising, the S&P 500 index saw significant declines. The us jobs reports in the coming weeks will be key... Source. Global Markets Investor
Americans have never been so worried about the year ahead:
The share of consumers uncertain about business conditions over the next year spiked to 51% in September, the most on record. The percentage has DOUBLED in 4 months. Over the last 30 years, the share of consumers concerned about short-term business prospects has never been so high. Americans have been hit by historically high costs of living, elevated borrowing costs, and the deteriorating job market. US households are struggling. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US yieldcurve keeps steepening...
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
FED cuts rates by 50bp to 4.75%-5% range
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point Wednesday, in an aggressive start to a policy shift aimed at bolstering the US labor market.Committee sees another half-point of cuts in rest of 2024Policymakers penciled in an additional percentage point of cuts in 2025, according to their median forecast.
The US yield curve continues to steepen.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are the highest vs 2-year yields going back to 2022. Source: Lisa Abramowitz, Bloomberg
BREAKING: Multiple shots were fired in the vicinity of Donald Trump as he was golfing at the Trump National Golf Club in West Palm Beach
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BREAKING: The Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell -1.3% in July to 97.7 points, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdowns
This index tracks the health of the restaurant industry in the US by measuring sales, customer traffic, labor, and overall business conditions. Since 2021, this metric has fallen by ~8.0%, marking the largest drop since it was launched in 2002. Such a low level in the index has only been seen during recessions. Americans are pulling back on dining out as prices have been sharply rising and recently hit new all-time highs. Since 2020, food prices away from home have increased by 27.0%, and fast food prices have jumped by 31.0%. Eating out is becoming a luxury... Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Trahan Macro Research
