As a reminder... From April to October 2018, the US announced tariffs on half of all imports from China at 25%.
The Yuan fell 10% in an almost full offset. Turkey and Argentina had their own crises at the time and were blowing up constantly. But all of EM got hammered. Brazil was down 11%... History doesn't repeat but often rhymes... Source: Robin Brook, Bloomberg
US GOVERNMENT BORROWING EXPLODED IN OCTOBER
US budget deficit hit a STAGGERING $257.5 BILLION in October. This is up nearly 400% year-over-year versus $66.6 BILLION last year. This was also the 2nd highest deficit in the entire US history. Source: Global Markets Investor
🍕 BREAKING: Domino's Pizza stock, $DPZ, soars over 8%
after Warren Buffett discloses new position in the company...
RFK JR. TO BE TAPPED TO “MAKE AMERICA HEALTHY AGAIN” AS HHS SECRETARY
President-elect Donald Trump will nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of the Health and Human Services Department. RFK Jr., who is a vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, is the son of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, and the nephew of former President John Kennedy. Kennedy, a long time advocate for medical freedom and health, is set to join the administration with a commitment to “shake up” the health system and prioritize Americans’ well-being. Trump’s selection of Kennedy came a day after the Republican president-elect tapped Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general.
⚠️US GOVERNMENT BORROWING EXPLODED IN OCTOBER⚠️
US budget deficit hit a STAGGERING $257.5 BILLION in October. This is up nearly 400% year-over-year versus $66.6 BILLION last year. This was also the 2nd highest deficit in the entire United States history. Mind-blowing numbers. Source: Global Markets Investor, zerohedge
The US accounts for 74% of the MSCI world market capitalization, also a new all-time high.
Source: SG
Will the "Trump trade" start top fade in December?
Goldman Sachs' trader John Flood highlighted the 2016 analogs: the 3 trades depicted below (Domestic vs. International sales, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, Small-caps vs. Large-caps) skyrocketed in November 2016 but ALL started to fade in December 2016, going nowhere in Q1 2017. Could we see something similar in December and Q1 2025 ? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
BofA (Woodward):
"the net supply of US equities has shrunk -$473bn. The steady growth of buybacks, a key source of demand, has overwhelmed sources of new supply such as share issuance, IPOs, and stock-based compensation." So basically we have: 1) US stocks: shrinking supply, (ever-) increasing demand 2) US Treasuries: rising supply, decreasing demand Source: Neil Sethi
