WHAT A SHORT SQUEEZE...
On April 1st, the US-Iran war was in full swing, oil was at $115, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, recession fears were everywhere, and hedge funds were at their most bearish positioning in years. Every major bank was warning of a market crash. Then the ceasefire hit. Oil crashed 22% and Every hedge fund that was short had to cover immediately. Every investor sitting in cash had to chase the rally. The result: - Nasdaq: +16% in April, New all time high. - S&P 500: +11% in April, New all time high. - Russell 2000: +12% in April, New all time high. - Dow Jones: +7% in April. Three major indexes hitting all time highs in the same month while an active war was happening is something that has almost never occurred in market history. Source: Bull Theory
"We are going to need a bigger boat..." ($NVDA...)
The biggest US tech firms now plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, primarily on AI data center equipment. Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800B / $1.1 trillion in 2026 / 2027 (versus $765B / $950B) prior. That means we will also to need a lot of energy and raw materials for that !!! Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley
This GOOGL Complex basket is up +45.81% in April, shattering prior monthly % moves.
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
The 189K initial jobless claims print yesterday was the lowest print since 1969 !
Meanwhile, Meta, Nike, Morgan Stanley, Amazon all cutting heads. But the number still prints like full employment !!! So what's going on? It seems the "low-hire low-fire" economy is turning as a "roach motel" for the unemployed: can't get in, can't get out. 💀 Source: Markets & Mayhem
The S&P gained 14.7% annualized during Powell's tenure; third best for Fed chairs since 1970
Source: Bespoke
On the other side of the world, China’s economic signals are shifting.
While trade dynamics fluctuate, attention is turning to its energy position. Estimates suggest China holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels in oil reserves—enough to cover about six months in a worst-case disruption scenario . At the same time, efforts by BRICS nations to move away from the U.S. dollar in oil trade have made limited progress, with the dollar still dominating global transactions. China has long relied on discounted oil imports from countries like Iran and Venezuela, but geopolitical pressures may complicate that strategy. Amid global tensions and proxy conflicts, the broader strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a defining theme. Source: NY Times, Rothmus on X
Semiconductors now represent almost 15% of AC MSCI World market capitalisation and are now the largest sector overall.
Source: SocGen, TME
Trump to be briefed on new military options for Iran.
CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper is set to present updated plans for potential military action, per Axios. The briefing signals the US is weighing a return to major combat operations amid stalled negotiations. Options under consideration include escalation to break the deadlock or delivering a decisive strike before ending the conflict. Source: Bull Theory Activate to view larger image,
