Syz the moment

Since 1930, the US stocks benchmark has seen an average 12% drawdown in the first 3 months after a new Fed chair has been elected. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays

China's AI chip self-sufficiency ratio has risen from ~10% in 2021 to 41% in 2026, a more than 4 times increase in just 5 years, per Morgan Stanley. This ratio shows how much of China’s AI chip demand is filled by local production instead of imports. Morgan Stanley projects this ratio will rise further to ~86% by 2030, meaning China could meet nearly all of its AI chip demand domestically within 4 years. US export restrictions have accelerated China's push to develop domestic alternatives, and the results are advancing faster than most of the world expected. Source: Global Markets Investor

Now down 98% since 2010 Source: Barchart

The semiconductors index SOX is printing its biggest downside candle since the melt-up began. The index is now breaking below the steep trend line while slipping under the 8 day moving average. The 21 day sits lower (next meaningful support), while the 50 day remains far below current levels. Source: TME, LSEG

Source: Charlie Bilello

Gold has continued its huge consolidation phase following the violent pukes we saw earlier this year. The shorter-term trend line has survived several tests, but we are now approaching the major $4400 level, with the 200 day moving average coming in just below. That is the must hold area. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace

Source: Stocks World

See below great chart from Alpine Macro showing that Momentum stocks (dominated by semis) have basically had a vertical rally relative to minimum volatility stocks (think defensives like staples, utilities). Markets don’t like big straight-line moves like that. It’s not something that persists. Source: TME