What happened to luxury stocks ?
Current Drawdowns: EssilorLuxottica: -39% Hermès: -41% Ferrari: -43% LVMH: -49% $RACE $RMS $MC $EL Source: Fiscal.ai
The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an IRGC-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service.
Source: LLoyd's List
Range or breakdown?
Markets are at a decision point. The big range is still holding, but short-term trends, bond stress, and positioning shifts are building pressure. These setups don’t linger, one side eventually wins. Source: TME
Pinpointing the next “Taco” moment has become Wall Street’s newest fixation.
This week, Deutsche Bank’s head of cross-asset strategy, Maximilian Uleer, introduced a “pressure index” designed to act as a proxy for potential shifts in rhetoric or strategy from the US administration. The index incorporates several indicators, including the one-month change in Trump’s approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, movements in the S&P 500, and US Treasury yields. Source: FT
Iran Controls Passage Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has announced it will allow “non-hostile vessels” to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but only under Iranian control and coordination. This strait normally carries ~20% of global oil, yet thousands of ships are delayed, attacked, or paying high fees. Iran may block vessels linked to the US or Israel and is drafting laws to formalize control. Beyond shipping, this move signals a financial shift, including potential moves away from the US dollar, turning the Strait into a strategic leverage point in global energy and trade. Source: Financial Times
Ares Restricts Withdrawals Amid Private Credit Surge
Ares Management capped withdrawals at 5% from its $10.7B private credit fund after $1.2B in redemption requests, fulfilling only ~$524M. The fund still grew due to $708M in new commitments, but liquidity stress is rising across the $2T private credit market, with $13B requested this quarter and $4.6B unmet. Concerns over loan quality, slower PE exits, and aging LBOs are driving investor caution. Despite this, Ares reports a healthy portfolio and ~$5B liquidity, highlighting opportunity for long-term holders. Source: Financial Times
Trump Proposes 1-Month Ceasefire with Iran
Former President Donald Trump proposed a 15-point deal offering Iran major sanctions relief, civilian nuclear support, and reintegration into the global economy in exchange for dismantling its nuclear program, cutting ties with proxies, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The framework mirrors a pre-war offer, but Iran’s new leadership demands reparations. Key obstacles remain: Iran won’t fully halt enrichment, Trump rejects reparations, and ongoing regional military actions complicate the agreement’s implementation. Source: WSJ, Mario Nawfal, Jack Prandelli
SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyds List, PIB India, and regional briefings.
