Straight from the Desk
Syz the moment
Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.
- All
- us
- equities
- Food for Thoughts
- macro
- Bonds
- Central banks
- Asia
- sp500
- markets
- technical analysis
- investing
- bitcoin
- inflation
- interest-rates
- europe
- Crypto
- Commodities
- ETF
- AI
- nvidia
- tech
- performance
- Forex
- earnings
- gold
- geopolitics
- Real Estate
- oil
- bank
- apple
- nasdaq
- Volatility
- Alternatives
- energy
- emerging-markets
- magnificent-7
- switzerland
- sentiment
- tesla
- trading
- ESG
- Money Market
- France
- Middle East
- UK
- assetmanagement
- meta
- russia
- bankruptcy
- Turkey
- amazon
- ethereum
- Industrial-production
- microsoft
- africa
- FederalReserve
- Healthcare
- Market Outlook
- brics
- Focus
BREAKING: Odds of a Fed rate cut by September 2024 skyrocket to 83% after June CPI inflation, according to Kalshi.
June 2024 marked the first NEGATIVE month-over-month inflation print since May 2020. Headline inflation is now at a 12-month low and 100 basis points away from the Fed's 2% target. Prior to the CPI inflation report today, prediction markets saw a 67% chance of rate cuts by September. Exactly 1 year ago, the Fed stopped raising interest rates. Does the Fed have the green light to cut rates? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
We're in a slow-motion melt-up according to Ed Yardeni
Source: Business Insider
🚨 BREAKING NEWS: US CPI for June just came in at -0.1% MoM below expectations of 0.1% MoM
US CPI for June just came in at +3% YoY below expectations of +3.4% YoY Core CPI inflation fell to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.4%. This marks the 39th consecutive month with inflation at or above 3%. It's also the 3rd straight month with declining CPI inflation. Looks like a September rate cut is coming. Source: Jesse Cohen
US CPI estimates by firm
TD Securities: 3.0% JP Morgan: 3.1% Wells Fargo: 3.1% Citadel: 3.1% Barclays: 3.1% CitiGroup: 3.1% Goldman Sachs: 3.2% Bank of America: 3.2% Morgan Stanley: 3.5% Previous: 3.3% Median: 3.1% Source: TrendSpider
The 50 largest stocks in the S&P500 have a median return of +13% this year while the 50 smallest stocks in the index are down 12%.
$SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
An important US macro data is expected today: the CPI inflation data for June. The median forecast for headline CPI inflation is 3.1%, but markets are showing a wide range.
Prediction markets currently show that there is a 19% chance of June CPI inflation coming in ABOVE 3.1%, according to Kalshi. On the other hand, there's a 31% chance of inflation coming in BELOW 3.1%. There's even a 5% chance of CPI coming in above 3.3%, which would put inflation back on the rise. If CPI inflation comes in as expected, it would mark the 3rd straight monthly decline in YoY inflation. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Investing with intelligence
Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks