U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative 🚨
On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks offer zero return for investors 👀 Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
🚨Very interesting comment by Bull Theory @BullTheoryio on why Bitcoin always dumps at 10 a.m. when the U.S. market opens ?
Yesterday, Bitcoin erased 16 hours of gains in just 20 minutes after the US market opened. ‼️ Since early November, BTC has dumped most of the time after US market opens. The same thing happened in Q2 and Q3. 📌 @zerohedge has been calling this out repeatedly, and he thinks Jane Street is the most likely entity doing this. Bull Theory then highlighted that when you look at the chart, the pattern is too consistent to ignore: a clean wipe out within an hour of the market opening followed by slow recovery. That’s classic high-frequency execution. They add that it actually fit their profile: • Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world. • They have the speed and liquidity to move markets for a few minutes. They then assume (this is NOT verified) that what Jane Street does in a consistent manner is the following: 1. Dump BTC at the open. 2. Push the price into liquidity pockets. 3. Re-enter lower. 4. Repeat daily. And by doing this, they might have accumulated billions in $BTC. As of now, Jane Street holds $2.5B worth of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, their 5th largest position. Does it mean that the dump in BTC isn't due to macro weakness but due to manipulation by one major entity??? What’s your take?
Before 2011, VIX never retraced 40% in two weeks…
It’s happened five times in the past twelve months. Source: The Market Ear @themarketear
Great chart from Ryan Detrick thru Eugene Ng on X
The top 10 stocks account for ~39% of the US stock market. But many more countries are far higher, China ~49%, Australia 62%, Taiwan 76%, and even Singapore is ~88%.
🤯 The Hidden Vulnerability Powering America: 20% of US Electricity is on Borrowed Time.
Did you know Nuclear energy generates 20% of all US electricity? That's our clean, reliable base load. But here’s the terrifying truth: 🇺🇸 The US once supplied nearly all its own Uranium fuel. TODAY: The US imports nearly 100% of the uranium we use. Let that sink in. One-fifth of US power generation is entirely dependent on foreign governments. In a world defined by geopolitical turbulence and supply chain risk, this isn't just an economic issue—it's a massive national security risk. The Mandate is Clear: The US must shift from relying on external sourcing to securing a resilient, domestic nuclear fuel cycle. Self-sufficiency is no longer optional; it’s paramount for energy independence and long-term stability. Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
BREAKING: Apple
Over the past week, • Apple’s chip chief considers leaving • Apple’s AI chief leaves • Apple’s Policy chief leaves • Apple’s Head of UI leaves • Now a 53% chance Tim Cook leaves (according to Kalshi) What is going on? Source: Kalshi @Kalshi
This chart destroys every "gold is too expensive" argument
They were buying 20 tonnes when gold was at $3,000. Now they're buying 55 tonnes at $4,000. Source: Katusa Research @KatusaResearch
Key events for the week ahead...
FOMC set for a third straight 25bp cut...while RBA, BoC & SNB should stand pat...JOLTS & UK GDP highlight the data docket...while a chunky slate of Treasury supply awaits... ORCL & AVGO highlight the earnings calendar... Source: Pepperstone
