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And it could trigger a massive downside risk to current tariff rates. 📉 Goldman’s latest insight suggests the "tariff era" as we know it is about to hit a major legal wall. Here is the breakdown: The Core Issue: The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). This is the "emergency" authority used to hike tariffs this year. The Likely Verdict: Oral arguments suggest a majority of Justices believe the administration exceeded its authority. What happens next? 1. The "Big Reset": If the court rules against all IEEPA tariffs, it wipes out 7.5 percentage points of the 11.4pp increase we’ve seen this year. That is a massive shift for global trade. 2. The "Specific" Limit: The court might allow tariffs for specific emergencies, but kill the idea of broad "reciprocal" tariffs. The Bottom Line: The risk to tariff rates is firmly to the downside. Even if the administration pivots to "Section 122" as a backup, rates would likely be capped at 15%. The result? A potential 1.6pp drop in the effective tariff rate almost overnight. So keep an eye on the SCOTUS docket. But let's also keep in mind that Trump administration have already prepared to retaliate. Tariffs are more about the HOW they will be implemented rather than the IF Source: Neil Sheti, Goldman

Think again! A 65-year-old married couple has a 47% chance that at least one spouse will live to age 90. Your portfolio should be prepared to last several decades into retirement. Source: Peter Mallouk

It covers the last 5 trading days of December + the first 2 of January. $SPX was up 77% of the time. The last 2 were negative, but there has never been a third straight down Santa Claus Rally. Source: Subu Trade @SubuTrade

Japanese 10-year government bond yield hit 2.07%, the highest since the 1990s. Gold prices hit a record $4,440, rising +68% year-to-date. Finally, silver prices surpassed $66 per ounce for the first time in history, now up +134% year-to-date. When will it end? Source: Global Markets Investor

Source: Barchart

We talk about global competition, but the data tells a much more lopsided story. Check these numbers: 1. The Profit Gap The US has 62 technology companies netting over $1B in annual profit. China? Only 15. That’s a 4x lead over the world’s second-largest economy. 2. The Global Comparison The US has 21 more elite tech firms than China, Japan, Taiwan, and the Eurozone combined. Read that again. One country is out-scaling entire continents. 3. The Leaderboard Of the world’s 10 largest companies, 8 are US tech firms. Of the world’s 10 most innovative companies, 8 are US-based. "Dominance" is no longer the right word. We are witnessing a level of industrial concentration we’ve never seen before. The US isn’t just participating in the future. It’s architecting it. Is the gap between the US and the rest of the world becoming unbridgeable? Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Stock market investment is at 20+ year highs. Meanwhile, retail asset allocation to stocks is up to ~70%, near the highest in 20 years, according to the AAII survey. This is in-line with the highs seen during the 2021 meme stock frenzy. To put this into perspective, stock allocations were just ~55% during 2020 and fell to ~40% at the 2008 low. At the same time, average stock exposure among investment managers is up to nearly ~100%, one of the highest readings over the last 20 years. This has risen ~65 percentage points since the April low. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg

*JAPAN NOV. CORE CPI RISES 3.0% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% *US NOV. CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% This is the first time since 1977 that Japan has a higher inflation rate than the US. (Japan includes taxes in its inflation measure. The US does not.) Source: Jim Bianco