Trump just confirmed that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is traveling with him to China aboard Air Force One.
According to TruthSocial, a potential US–China semiconductor deal is being discussed around a high-level tech summit involving major industry figures, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s late inclusion seen as a signal that advanced chip sales (especially H200 chips) could be on the agenda. The Trump administration has already outlined a conditional framework for allowing some China-bound chip exports, and broader comments suggest market access is part of negotiations. However, political resistance from China hawks, pending legislation to review chip exports, and analyst skepticism make a full breakthrough unlikely. The most probable outcome is limited, conditional progress rather than a broad deal. Source: TruthSocial
China will go from being almost completely reliant on chips from external sources to almost completely self-sufficient in just ten years - per MS
Source: David Ingles
Japan's 20Y bond yield rises as high as 3.511%, highest since 1996 as global interest rates go vertical
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
How does the sp500 perform when the US 10 year yield crosses key levels?
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
Renaissance Technologies filed their Q4 2025 holdings with the SEC in February.
This is the fund built by Jim Simons, a mathematician who beat Wall Street for 40 years using pure math and zero emotion. Their Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns before fees for over 20 years. The best track record in the history of investing. Here's what they were holding at December 31, 2025, and what those positions are worth today. MU – held $859M worth at ~$186/share. Now ~$768. Up 312%. BE – held $22.6M worth at ~$87/share. Now ~$287. Up 230%. AMD – held $267M worth at ~$211/share. Now ~$455. Up 116%. Source: The Assembly
Breadth within sp500 is narrowing
Source: Barclays, RBC
Everyone says they want AI adoption. Until metrics become the goal instead of the outcome.
Amazon employees are using AI agents to automate unnecessary work, by how AI usage is tracked through token consumption metrics, leaderboards, and adoption targets. This creates incentives to optimize for measured activity rather than real value, a classic case of people gaming whatever is being measured. As a result, employees focus on using AI—and being seen using it—rather than improving outcomes, leading to behaviors sometimes called “tokenmaxxing.” The situation mirrors past cases like vanity KPIs, meeting overload, and lines-of-code metrics. The key lesson is that AI adoption should be measured by business impact, not usage. Source: FT
Inflation is now outpacing wages in America for the first time in 3 years.
Before the US-Iran war started in late February, inflation was sitting at 2.4%. It has risen to 3.8% in just two months, driven almost entirely by the energy price shock from the war. Real average hourly wages fell 0.5% in April alone and are now down 0.3% annually. Americans are earning more dollars but buying less with them. Source: Bull Theory
