While equity indices are holding in reasonably well amidst market stress, the more important market story is under the hood.
There is meaningful dispersion across constituents beneath the surface, reflecting a market that is quickly separating durable growers from more challenged business models. Source: Rick Rieder
U.S. National Debt just hit $39 trillion
The last trillion was added in just 146 days. That’s $6.85 billion every single day. Or $79,282 every second. Interest costs now exceed $1T annually. Source: Hedgeye
Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey
Source: BofA, TME
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut.
A month ago, no one would have believed this. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT
The US is now one of the largest oil exporters in the world:
US crude oil and petroleum exports hit 3.9 BILLION barrels in 2025, according to the EIA. The Netherlands is the largest buyer at 419 million barrels (10.7%), serving as Europe's largest oil trading hub. Four of the top 7 importers are in Asia, with South Korea (257M), Japan (247M), China (238M), and India (221M) combining for ~24.8% of total US oil exports. Mexico (398M) and Canada (324M) round out the top 3, with North American neighbors combining for 18.5% of total volume. US oil is now flowing to virtually every corner of the globe. Source: Global Markets Investor
Over the past 75 years, the average intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 has been about 14%.
Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. Source: PeterMallouk, The Chart Report
Everyone has heard about the German carmakers' crisis.
Take a look at what's going on in its key chemical sector: production is at levels seen during the GFC, and this during good times, even before the current energy crisis. Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
February’s PPI inflation was HOTTER than expected, marking two consecutive PPI inflation reports that were WORST than expectations…
🔴 US February PPI • PPI MoM: +0.7% (est. +0.3%) • PPI YoY: +3.4% (est. +2.9%) • Core PPI MoM: +0.5% (est. +0.3%) • Core PPI YoY: +3.9% (est. +3.7%) ➡️ Inflation pressures remain above expectations. Market eyes now shift to Powell’s speech later today. Source: OnlyOptionsTrades
