Syz the moment

CPI: 2.7% vs. 3.1% expected (3.0% previous) Core CPI: 2.6% vs. 3.0% expected (3.0% previous) This shows inflation is cooling down. FED now has more room for rate cuts and monetary easing. JANUARY RATE-CUT ODDS EDGE HIGHER November CPI undershot expectations, with headline inflation at 2.7% YoY and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. Markets are reacting modestly. Kalshi pricing shows the probability of a 25 bp Fed cut in January pushing higher, though a hold remains the base case. The data supports the easing trend, but January still appears borderline for action. Source: *Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

Most people are blinded by the AI hype. But if you look at the balance sheet, the red flags are screaming. 🚩 Here is the $248 BILLION reality check that nobody is talking about: 1. The Off-Balance-Sheet Trap Oracle has committed to $248 billion in lease commitments for AI data centers. These aren't just numbers—they are massive legal obligations that kick in fully by 2028. 2. The Cash Flow Problem Capex is set to double to $50 billion. Meanwhile, Free Cash Flow (FCF) is expected to stay NEGATIVE for years. They are spending money they haven't made yet to build infrastructure they hope people will use. 3. The "Duration Mismatch" This is the silent killer. Oracle is signing long-term leases (decades) to support short-term AI contracts (months/years). If AI demand softens? The revenue vanishes. The lease payments? They stay forever. The Bottom Line: Oracle is betting the entire farm on the AI revolution. If the bubble bursts—or even just leaks—their solvency isn't just "threatened." It's in danger. 📉 We’ve seen this movie before (1999, anyone?). Leverage is a great tool until the music stops. Is Oracle the first domino to fall, or is this just the price of winning? 👇 Let’s discuss in the comments. Source: Global Markets Investor

Last night, President Trump took to the airwaves for a primetime address that has everyone talking. Whether you agree with the strategy or not, there are some massive leadership lessons—and market-shifting announcements—we can’t ignore. Here is the breakdown of the "Second Term Revitalization" speech: 🚀 The Big Economic Bet: Trump is doubling down on tariffs as the engine for a "boom the likes of which the world has never seen." Despite a 3% CPI, the administration is betting on a radical shift in domestic investment. 📉 The Interest Rate Pivot: A new Federal Reserve Chair is coming. The criteria? Someone who believes in lowering rates "by a lot." This is a clear signal to the markets: the administration wants borrowing costs and mortgage payments down, now. 🎖️ The "Warrior Dividend": In a move to honor the upcoming 250th anniversary of the USA, Trump announced a $1,776 bonus for military members. A strategic play to shore up support within the ranks. 💊 Healthcare & Disruptive Innovation: Rejecting the extension of current subsidies, the plan is now direct-to-consumer. "I want the money to go directly to the people." It’s a bold move toward a market-driven healthcare model. The Reality Check: The address comes at a high-stakes moment. With a 54% disapproval rating and internal White House friction making headlines, the "rushed and combative" tone of the speech shows a leader under immense pressure to deliver results—fast. Leadership isn’t just about the vision; it’s about the execution. The world is watching to see if these "Grand Slams" translate into relief for the American household. Source: FT

Up +36% over the last 3years (+10.7% annualized) - gross of fees with annual rebalancing

This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time. The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007 Source: Subu Trade @SubuTrade

In the coming years, other emerging economies, led by India & Southeast Asia, are set to become increasingly influential in growth trends . Source: IEA

Why? Because the "growth at all costs" era of AI is meeting a harsh new reality: Debt. The Breakdown: 🚀 The Ambition: Oracle is trying to build a $300B infrastructure bridge for OpenAI. 💸 The Debt: Oracle’s net debt has ballooned from $78B to $105B in just one year. Forecasts show it hitting $290B by 2028. 🛑 The Pivot: Lenders are getting nervous. They are demanding stricter terms, higher rates, and more collateral. The Lesson for Leaders: Even the giants aren't immune to market sentiment. Blue Owl—the pioneer of these massive sale-leaseback deals—decided the risk no longer matched the reward. While Oracle says they are moving forward with a new (unnamed) partner, the message from Wall Street is clear: The blank check for AI infrastructure is being cancelled. Investors are no longer just asking "How fast can you build?" They are asking "How are you going to pay for it?" We are moving from the Hype Phase of AI into the Sustainability Phase. Only those with the strongest balance sheets will survive the transition. Oracle $ORC stock is down -5% on the news!

Source: zerohedge