Bitcoin & crypto markets have looked resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict, outperforming Gold and equity indices.
"Maybe it takes a physical conflict to realise Bitcoin remains the most portable (cross border), digital and liquid asset w/no counter-party risks," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note. Key Implications of the Statement: ➡️ Cross-Border Portability: Bitcoin can be transferred anywhere in the world, bypassing traditional banking restrictions that may arise during conflicts. ➡️Digital Nature: Being entirely digital, it is not susceptible to physical seizure, unlike gold or fiat currency. ➡️No Counter-party Risk: Because Bitcoin is decentralized, it does not rely on a central bank or government to guarantee its value or facilitate transactions. ➡️Liquidity: The asset can be readily exchanged, providing a financial safety net when local banking systems are compromised. Chhugani has previously pointed to rising tensions as a catalyst for investors to reconsider Bitcoin as a "safe haven" asset that operates outside of traditional financial infrastructure. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Private credit managers: “If you think debt is impaired, private equity is really cooked”
Also private credit managers: Source: @LeylaKuni, Gain.pro
Bluekurtic Market Insights: "$SPX volatility index $VIX remains above 20 and oil at multi year highs.
Sustained oil supply shocks can risk deeper drawdowns. In prior cases of prolonged supply disruptions, S&P 500 saw above average drawdowns in the following 3 months". Source: Bluekurtic
UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%.
That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008. Source: Leadlag report, Michel Gayed
Trump’s warship request global responses
When Trump asked the world to send warships, here’s what each country said: France officially rejected, China gave no response and called it a “sovereign right,” the United Kingdom said it was “discussing options with allies” with no commitment, Japan remained silent despite 70% of its Middle East oil passing through Hormuz, South Korea gave no confirmation, Germany and Norway rejected convoy support, Qatar stopped gas production and declared force majeure, the UAE noted Gulf states tried to stop the war, and Iran continued attacking ships, laying mines, and blocking the strait. Ten countries. Zero warships. Source: Whale.Guru, @Whale_Guru
The Global Equity market is valued at $154 trillion as of 2025 and here's the detailed breakdown.
44% of the global share is owned by USA, while the rest of the world combined holds 56%. China and the European Union (EU) hold similar stakes at about 9.6% each. India is the third largest country, representing 6.9% of the global equity markets, followed by Japan at 4.9%. A 10-year comparison (2015 vs 2025): Interestingly, China, EU, Hong Kong, Japan and UK have each seen a decline from their share in 2015. On the other hand, India and USA have both witnessed an increase in their share. Source: Stocks World @anandchokshi19
China and Iran a tangled geopolitical web
In 2017, China bought 26% of Iran's oil. Last year? 90%. Every other buyer EU, India, Japan, Korea has been sanctioned out. So when Trump asks China to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he’s asking the one country keeping Iran financially alive to help militarily contain it. China funds Iran's war chest, while Iran mines China’s oil supply. This is one of the most tangled relationships in geopolitics, and Beijing has to choose very carefully. Source: Giacomo Prandelli
Big week ahead for centralbanks
Source: Bloomberg
