UK borrowing costs hit highest level this year as gilt sell-off intensifies.
This should not come as a surprise, Eurizon SLJ Research's Stephen Jen says: When the debt stock is 99% of GDP, and the govt imposes the largest tax hike post-WWII and the largest increase in spending in multi-decades, why should one be surprised that the bond market shows signs of indigestion? Source: HolgerZ, FT
Since The Fed cut rates, USA Sovereign risk has exploded higher...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Why is it happening?
With Interest Expense soaring and US debt/GDP at 125% & rising, the only way the US can keep USTs nominally money good are via negative real rates. hence the gold outperformance. Source: Bloomberg, Luke Gromen
Interesting point of view by Dr. Ed Yardeni:
"28 days since the 1st rate cut and 10-Yr. yield is up nearly +60bps. The 1995 Soft Landing rate cut cycle is almost a mirror image, as it also started its descent a few days later, a potential post-election outcome". There is one big difference though: the fiscal 6 debt situation in the US now vs. 1995... Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
Inflation surprises are picking up since Fed rate cut...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
😱 Do you remember Beyond Meat ?
Source: Radar
US employment numbers are out... and what a miss... 😱
🚨 It is indeed a confusing US jobs report with ugly headline numbers. US economy added just 12k jobs, according to Establishment Survey, far below consensus forecast of +100k and down from +223k in September. 🚨 Private payrolls were negative 28k, below the Street’s +70k forecast and down from +192k in September. 🌪 August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, 🌪 September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000 👉 Odds of a 25 bps Fed cut next week increase per SOFR. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Despite talks of de-dollarisation, America dominance has never been that strong:
• US stock exchanges capture more than half of global free-float market capitalisation • US share of global stock market is 2.3 times its share of global GDP — the highest-ever ratio Source: Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais
