Syz the moment

Source: Charlie Belillo

South Korea stocks are up 126% in 2026. Taiwan stocks are up 73%. China stocks are down 12%. One of the widest performance gaps we've ever seen. Source: Charlie Bilello

S&P 500 adds $MRVL and $FLEX; removes $POOL and $CPB. Nasdaq-100 adds $ALAB, $CRWV, $NBIS, $RKLB and $TER; removes $CHTR, $CTSH, $INSM, $VRSK and $ZS. Source: Wall St Engine

Key statement points: - High-level U.S.-Iran talks concluded in Switzerland. - Working groups formed on nuclear issues, sanctions and dispute resolution. - Direct communication line established to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. - De-confliction cell created to support the Lebanon ceasefire. - Technical talks to continue this week in Burgenstock, Switzerland. Iran's FM Araghchi said mediated talks involving Pakistan and Qatar delivered “major progress” on the Lebanon conflict, including waived oil and petrochemical export restrictions, lifting of the blockade, partial release of frozen assets and a reconstruction plan launched for Iran. He cautioned that the first “real test” will be the operational rollout of the Lebanon deconfliction cell. Source: Bull Theory

The 2-year breakeven inflation rate is now lower than it was at the start of the year, signaling that investors expect less inflation over the next two years. With oil prices continuing to soften, markets are increasingly pricing in disinflation, not a resurgence in inflation. Forget headlines and forecasts—breakeven inflation reflects where investors are putting real money. The narrative is shifting from inflation panic to lower inflation expectations. Are markets right, or are they underestimating inflation risks? Source: Bloomberg, Manish Singh

Anduril Industries is a defense technology company building AI-powered systems for military and national security missions. Founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey and others, it develops autonomous drones, surveillance towers, underwater vehicles, command-and-control software, and counter-drone technologies. Unlike traditional defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin or RTX Corporation, Anduril follows a software-first model: it invests its own capital to build AI-enabled defense products, then sells finished capabilities to governments, much like a Silicon Valley software company rather than a conventional cost-plus defense contractor. This approach has attracted significant investor interest as military spending increasingly shifts toward autonomy, AI, drones, and software-defined warfare. Its AI platform, Lattice, integrates data from sensors and autonomous systems to help military operators detect, track, and respond to threats in real time. The company aims to modernize defense by combining advanced software, robotics, and autonomous systems into scalable, mission-ready solutions. 2024 revenue: approximately $1.0 billion, according to the company. 2025 revenue: approximately $2.2 billion, officially disclosed by Anduril when it announced its $5 billion Series H financing in May 2026. 2026 outlook: management is reportedly forecasting around $4.3 billion in revenue, although this is a projection rather than reported results. This makes Anduril one of the fastest-growing private companies in the defense sector. Its latest funding round (May 2026) valued the company at approximately $61 billion, placing it among the world's most valuable private technology companies. Here is the history of Anduril's valuation growth 2017: $88M valuation (Seed) 2019: $1.04B (Series B) 2020: $1.92B (Series C) 2021: $4.6B (Series D) 2022: $8.5B (Series E) 2024: $14B (Series F) 2025: $30.5B (Series G) 2026: $61B (Series H) Source: Evan

Andy Burnham now positioned as a potential successor, setting Britain on track for its seventh prime minister in just a decade.

➡️ Who is he? Andy Burnham, 56, is the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, the "King of the North," who built his profile on regional regeneration ("Manchesterism"). ➡️ How can he become the UK new PM? On June 19 he won the Makerfield by-election with nearly 55%, clearing his path to challenge PM Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. Under party rules he needs 81 MPs to trigger a contest; the UK system would let him become PM without a general election. ➡️ How his policy could diverge from Starmer? Burnham sits left of the Starmer–Reeves administration. He has vowed to put energy, housing, water and transport under "stronger public control" and backs nationalising Thames Water. The market-relevant point: he previously said the UK must stop being "in hock to the bond market" and floated ~£40bn of extra borrowing, with defence spending outside the fiscal rules. The core divergence is a looser fiscal stance versus Reeves's self-imposed rules. ➡️Could the UK face another fiscal crisis? This is a real tail risk, partly priced, but most analysts see a Truss-style blowup as unlikely rather than negligible. Bear case: the UK has the G7's highest borrowing costs, long gilts above 5%, and minimal headroom; the by-election win push 10-year yields up, and some warn markets underestimate the risk of Burnham testing the rules. The 2022 Truss episode is the reference point. A drawn-out contest adds a risk premium, and the chancellor pick (Number 11) matters more than Number 10. Mitigants: Burnham is walking back his rhetoric, now backing the fiscal rules; the Truss episode itself disciplines any successor; and oil, not politics, is currently the main gilt driver. Net: not a base-case crisis, but a credible left-tail — most likely triggered by a disorderly transition plus an unfunded Autumn Budget. Watch items: long-end gilts, the gilt-Bund spread, and sterling on escalation. Key markers ahead: whether 81 MPs line up, transition speed, and the prospective Treasury team.