Goldman: On the back of 3 large data center and hyperscaler transactions over the past week+ April IG supply finished at $205 bn, nearly doubling the informal street estimate (~$110bn).
This took IG supply over the past 12mo to new highs at ~$2trn (~20% of outstanding IG bonds), pari with peak Covid. Source: Neil Sethi
Upward revisions to earnings, which have been very sharp, have come mostly from AI infrastructure stocks where growth is very strong.
Source: Lance Roberts, Goldman Sachs, The Daily Shot
BBG's Authers: "It might be unfair to call this a dash for trash. "
But nobody seems to care about quality. This is from Bloomberg’s Factors To Watch service, showing the results of buying the top 20% of stocks by a factor while shorting the worst 20%. "Since Liberation Day, buying quality stocks has been a one-way ticket to losses." Meanwhile, Momentum has been performing strongly. Source: Bloomberg, Neil Sethi
Nomura's McElligott says there's a "new 60/40":
"Government bonds no longer work as your Risk-Asset / Long Asset Beta Hedge in a world of “Sticky Higher Inflation”... “The New 60/40” is a 50/50 Equities Barbell Long between AI Semis and Energy…. where Energy insulates on the Global “Supply Shock” and “Molecule Shortage” as the risk-off vehicle in the current backdrop, against the risk-on component being a world where AI Hyperscalers are going from $600B of Capex in 2026 to upwards of ~$1 TRILLION in 2027 and “Chasing Compute”. Source: Neil Sethi
Companies bought 50,351 bitcoin in Q1 this year, the most amount ever 🤯 🚀
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
🔴America's valuation premium over Europe is historically WIDE:
The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of ~21 times, while the Stoxx Europe 600 trades at ~14 times. This brings the valuation gap up to ~7 points, the widest since at least the 2008 Financial Crisis. This comes as the Middle East war exposed Europe's structural vulnerability to energy shocks, turning what looked like attractive valuations into a value trap. At the same time, the US benefited from its relative energy independence and surging tech sector. Source: FT, Factset, Global Markets Investor
President Trump is flexing on his gains on $INTC...
Source: Donald Trump on Truth Social
Bitcoin is trading above the key $80k level, with the “light golden cross” (50/100-day) now in place.
The 200-day MA sits slightly higher, a level that hasn’t seen a close above it since last October. Source: The Market Ear
