Late November gonna late November?
Stocks bottomed on November 20 and have staged a pretty impressive three day rally. Exactly in line with normal seasonality... Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
Gold loves rising Japanese rates.
This remains a massive driver of the shiny metal, despite few talking about it on a daily basis. Source: The Market Ear
88% chance Americans receive stimulus checks by next summer
Source: Kalshi
Shoppers are showing up for Black Friday–Cyber Monday, but with tighter wallets.
According to Deloitte’s 2025 Black Friday–Cyber Monday survey: 🛍 82% of consumers plan to shop during the week (up from 79% in 2024) 💰 Expected spend is down 4% to an average of $622 💳 64% plan to use credit cards or buy now, pay later (BNPL) options to stretch budgets Both lower- and higher-income households say they’ll cut back It’s also now a true hybrid event: Shoppers expect to split their time 60% online / 40% in store 72% of Gen Z plan to shop in store on Black Friday Gen Z now drives about $20 of every $100 in holiday spend (vs. $4 five years ago) source : Deloitte
It may be a short week, but Thanksgiving week has traditionally been good for equities.
source : bespoke
Big opportunities are often ignored by everyone Gemini
Source: Bourbon Capital @BourbonCap
There are 5 spot Crypto ETFs launching over next 6 days.
Nice chart showing what's launched and what's on deck from @JSeyff Source: Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence
Fed Rate-cut odds for December are on the rise...
Hopes of another rate cut in December were initially boosted by Fed's Williams dovish comments on Friday and then encouraged by Goldman over the weekend. Yesterday, San Francisco Fed's Daly added to the sudden dovish pivot (from the rampant hawkish pivot mid-last week): "On the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it," she said in an interview on Monday. "It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change." An inflation breakout, by contrast, is a lower risk given how tariff-driven cost increases have been more muted than anticipated earlier this year, she said. Daly's comments pushed the odds of a December cut back above 80%... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
