WAR AND EQUITY MARKETS - THE LONG VIEW
Source: Charlie Biello
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Returns since the start of the conflict
Source: Trend Spider
Energy sector up 25% YTD. Everything else red.
One sector carrying the market isn't a rotation. It's a warning. Source: Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport
The effect of fiat money system on inflation
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
Korean stocks volatility trades like oil volatility
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
IEA Plans Record Oil Release, But Supply Shock May Persist
The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche
U.S. intel claims Iran has started dropping naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz because apparently missiles, drones, and regional chaos weren’t enough drama for 2026.
Only a few dozen mines are confirmed so far… but that’s the appetizer. Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go, enough to turn the strait into a long-term maritime death maze. Clearing it could take months, and that’s if no one’s shooting during the process. Source: Map Narratives, Mario Nawfal on X
