Syz the moment

WSJ: "Gemini 3’s surge past ChatGPT and other competitors on benchmark tests has handed Google an elusive victory". OpenAI/ChatGPT continues to have a massive lead but the market share has been clearly eroding. DeepSeek, Perplexity and Claude come after Gemini-. Microsoft/Copilot is barely visible on the chart. Source: Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh

• Americas: 4,995 • Europe: 3,476 • Asia & Oceania: 2,068 • Africa & the Middle East: 494 Source: Investing visuals @InvestingVisual, Visual Capitalist

While retail panic-sold the dip, something very different was happening under the surface. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1,000+ BTC just went vertical. That’s ~$91 million per wallet. Translation? Short-term hands are handing their coins straight into the pockets of deep-pocketed, long-duration buyers. And yes — they know exactly what they’re doing. Markets have been jittery: • Rate-cut uncertainty 📉 • Overheated AI equity spending 🤖 • The classic “crypto cycle fear” 😬 Sentiment gauges? Extreme fear. Long-term capital? Completely unfazed. Case in point: Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly tripled its BTC exposure last quarter — now sitting near $500M. These aren’t tourists. They’re the ones who buy when everyone else hesitates. So if you’re selling your Bitcoin today… You might want to take a closer look at who’s on the other side of your trade. Now zoom out 👇 Global liquidity is sitting at record highs — and still expanding. Over 80% of major economies are easing or injecting capital again. Crypto regulation is finally becoming clearer. Historically, when: ✅ Liquidity rises + ✅ Policy clarity improves → Risk assets rally. → Crypto rallies the most. Will it happen again this time? Source: Bitwise, Tommy Rogulj @tommyrogulj

As highlighted by Jim Bianco, the current tally looks like this: * 5 Voters have strongly signaled they do not want to cut rates next month (Barr, Musalem, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins) * 5 Voters signaled they want to cut rates (Miran, Waller, Bowman, Williams, Cook) * 2 Voters are unknown (Powell and Jefferson) If the Fed is truly becoming independent, then it should be a 7-5 vote ... either way. Time will tell...

See one example below from The Coastal Journal.

Similar to last year anniversary, it seems that some investors see this as an ominous sign...

Today the S&P 500 opened up +1.4%… and finished deep in the RED (-1.5%). That move has happened only twice in modern history: Apr 7, 2020 — Post-COVID crash volatility Apr 8, 2025 — Post-Liberation Day shock Today just became the third. So what actually drove the reversal? Goldman’s trading desk points to a perfect storm: 🔥 1) NVDA -7% fade Yes, they beat. Yes, they raised. But the “clear all” bull case didn’t show up. ⚠️ 2) Private credit risk can’t be brushed aside Fed’s Cook literally flagged “potential asset valuation vulnerabilities.” 📉 3) September NFP = fine… but not decisive December rate-cut odds barely nudged higher (now ~35%). 💥 4) Crypto cracked below the $90K psychological line 📊 5) CTA supply hit the gas Positioning was crowded long… and we just crossed short-term triggers. Medium-term supply looms at 6456. 🐻 6) Shorts are waking back up 🌏 7) Weak global price action SK Hynix, SoftBank… not helping. 💧 8) Liquidity? Nearly nonexistent Top-of-book S&P liquidity ~$5mm vs ~$11mm YTD average. 📈 9) ETF-driven market ETFs were 41% of the tape today (YTD avg: 28%). When passive flows dominate, macro > fundamentals. Here’s the kicker: NVDA’s results were good. Objectively good. But as Goldman’s John Flood put it: 👉 “When really good news isn’t rewarded, that’s usually a bad sign.” So the real question: Is the market pricing in a Fed policy mistake? (No December cut → forced tightening → equity stress?) Or is this the market’s way of dragging the hawks back to the dovish table? Either way… Volatility is back. And the macro tape is driving the bus. 📡 Stay tuned. Source: zerohedge

Source: www.zerohedge.com