SPX spent nearly two weeks consolidating above the major breakout level and is now pushing higher again.
Frustration is building as dip buyers never really got a chance to step in. Source: TME
Apple issued a better-than-expected revenue forecast for the current period after beating on sales and earnings in the fiscal second quarter.
The stock rose about 3% in extended trading. Sales for iPhones missed estimates for the second time in three quarters, the only significant number that came up short of expectations in Thursday’s report. Revenue climbed 17% from $95.4 billion a year earlier, Apple said. It was the first time the company faced Wall Street since the announcement last week that Tim Cook will be stepping down as CEO after 15 years on the job. Apple said on the earnings call that revenue in the June quarter will increase between 14% and 17% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting growth of 9.5% to $103 billion, according to LSEG. The company’s board authorized an additional $100 billion in stock repurchases and declared a cash dividend of 27 cents per share, up 4%. Sales of iPhones rose 22% in the quarter from a year earlier. Like other consumer electronics companies and device makers, Apple faces supply chain constraints, largely due to the global memory shortage that’s being driven by soaring artificial intelligence demand. Meta and Microsoft said Wednesday that higher memory prices contributed to their increased capital expenditures forecasts for the year. Cook said on the earnings call that the iPhone 17 is now the “most popular lineup in our history” and noted that overall revenue beat guidance “despite supply constraints.” CFO Kevan Parekh said the company faced supply constraints on iPhones and Macs. $AAPL Apple Q2 FY26 (March quarter): 📱 Products +17% Y/Y to $80.2B. 💳 Services +16% Y/Y to $31.0B. • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $111.2B ($1.6B beat). • Operating margin 32% (+1pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.01 ($0.07 beat). APPLE $AAPL GUIDE June Quarter Guide: 🔹 Revenue: Expected to grow +14% to +17% YoY (Est. +9.1%) 🟢 - “best view of constrained supply” 🔹 Services: Expected to grow YoY at a rate similar to March quarter, excluding FX tailwinds 🔹 Gross Margin: 47.5%-48.5% Other Notes: 🔹 iPad faces a difficult compare from the A16-powered iPad launch in the prior year 🔹 March quarter FX was a 2.5-point tailwind to total company growth, with services slightly more favorable Commentary: 🔸 “We’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today.” Source: WOLF, CNBC
WHAT A SHORT SQUEEZE...
On April 1st, the US-Iran war was in full swing, oil was at $115, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, recession fears were everywhere, and hedge funds were at their most bearish positioning in years. Every major bank was warning of a market crash. Then the ceasefire hit. Oil crashed 22% and Every hedge fund that was short had to cover immediately. Every investor sitting in cash had to chase the rally. The result: - Nasdaq: +16% in April, New all time high. - S&P 500: +11% in April, New all time high. - Russell 2000: +12% in April, New all time high. - Dow Jones: +7% in April. Three major indexes hitting all time highs in the same month while an active war was happening is something that has almost never occurred in market history. Source: Bull Theory
"We are going to need a bigger boat..." ($NVDA...)
The biggest US tech firms now plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, primarily on AI data center equipment. Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800B / $1.1 trillion in 2026 / 2027 (versus $765B / $950B) prior. That means we will also to need a lot of energy and raw materials for that !!! Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley
This GOOGL Complex basket is up +45.81% in April, shattering prior monthly % moves.
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
The 189K initial jobless claims print yesterday was the lowest print since 1969 !
Meanwhile, Meta, Nike, Morgan Stanley, Amazon all cutting heads. But the number still prints like full employment !!! So what's going on? It seems the "low-hire low-fire" economy is turning as a "roach motel" for the unemployed: can't get in, can't get out. 💀 Source: Markets & Mayhem
The S&P gained 14.7% annualized during Powell's tenure; third best for Fed chairs since 1970
Source: Bespoke
On the other side of the world, China’s economic signals are shifting.
While trade dynamics fluctuate, attention is turning to its energy position. Estimates suggest China holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels in oil reserves—enough to cover about six months in a worst-case disruption scenario . At the same time, efforts by BRICS nations to move away from the U.S. dollar in oil trade have made limited progress, with the dollar still dominating global transactions. China has long relied on discounted oil imports from countries like Iran and Venezuela, but geopolitical pressures may complicate that strategy. Amid global tensions and proxy conflicts, the broader strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a defining theme. Source: NY Times, Rothmus on X
