Syz the moment

Below, an interesting Bloomberg chart showing the difference between forward 12 months EPS estimates and trailing 12 month EPS Source: Bloomberg

His message is clear: Al is no longer just software. It's becoming foundational infrastructure, similar to electricity or the internet. The 5 Layers of the Al Economy 1) Energy - The Power Behind Al Al requires massive electricity to run data centers and train models. This is why nuclear, renewable energy, and power infrastructure are becoming critical to the Al race. 2) Chips - Turning Power Into Compute Al chips convert electricity into computing power. Leaders like NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. dominate this layer with GPUs, advanced semiconductors, and high-bandwidth memory. 3) Infrastructure - The Al Factories Massive GPU clusters and cloud data centers coordinate tens of thousands of chips to "produce intelligence." Neo-Cloud leaders like Oracle, Nebius, Coreweave and Iren are building the backbone of Al compute. 4) Models - The Al Brain Large models process data and generate intelligence across language, science, robotics, and simulations. Competition is intensifying between companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. 5) Applications - Where Value Is Created The top layer is where Al transforms industries: autonomous driving, Al agents, robotics, enterprise software, and more.

"What did I give them? A country in tatters! Their Navy is at the bottom of the sea, their Air Force is gone, their leaders are DEAD, their Nuclear Labs were OBLITERATED." He also drops a specific number: Iran is "losing 500 million dollars a day" from the blockade. And calls the WSJ "just another failing political RAG" that "Rupert Murdoch told to write." The irony is that both Trump and the WSJ are making each other's case. The WSJ says Iran played Trump. Trump says he destroyed Iran. Both can be true simultaneously. Iran's military is devastated AND the regime survived, kept the Strait, and is negotiating from a position of leverage. Still, Iran is losing $500 million revenue a day. And that's the economic leverage the US is using.

➡️ "Regime change" at the Fed: new inflation framework, revised communications, possibly fewer FOMC meetings per year. ➡️ Independence: vowed not to be Trump's "sock puppet," but declined to defend Governor Cook; said political comments on rates don't threaten Fed independence. ➡️ Dovish pivot: argues AI-driven productivity gains justify rate cuts despite 3.3% CPI. ➡️ Balance sheet is the key lever: accelerate QT, offset with lower short rates — implies a steeper curve. Confirmation at risk: Sen. Tillis (R-NC) blocking until DOJ drops Powell investigation; no clear path without him. Market read: mildly hawkish tone on the day — 10Y +4bps to 4.29%, equities turned negative intraday (but the fact that JD Vance to Pakistan for a second attempt at peace negotiations with Iran has been put on hold also explains bond yields rise and stocks pullback...) Note that prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. Source: *Walter Bloomberg

Nearly 40% of US data center projects due to complete in 2026 are AT RISK of missing their deadlines by more than 3 months, according to SynMax satellite analysis and IIR Energy data. More than 60% of projects scheduled for 2027 have yet to begin construction as of April 2026. The 2027 pipeline alone represents ~50 gigawatts of planned capacity, equivalent to the output of ~50 nuclear reactors, with the majority still showing no construction activity, according to SynMax Vulcan Platform and IIR Energy. The primary constraints are chronic shortages of specialist labor, gas turbines, and transformers, along with permitting hurdles that are pushing labor costs up as much as +30% in remote locations. Is the US data center 'boom' hitting the wall? Source: Global Markets Investor, FT

You can't just flip the on/off switch on oil wells. If you stop, clogging happens. This can cause massive reduction in the amount of oil you get out of that oil well, requiring expensive and time consuming rework. Source: Wall Street Mav

He describes the campaign as “Economic Fury,” warning that any individual or vessel involved in these shipments could face U.S. sanctions. This marks one of the most aggressive economic threats in the conflict so far. Unlike flipping a switch, shutting down oil wells is a complex process. Restarting them can take months and cost billions—and in some cases, production never fully returns. In essence, Bessent is signaling a strategy aimed at inflicting long-term damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure without the use of military force.

Source: TT3