Syz the moment

"Chancellor Friedrich Merz has now suffered a setback in foreign policy as well. He was unable to push through the Mercosur trade deal – an agreement that matters greatly for Germany’s economy – and the plan to support Ukraine’s debt relies on the issuance of joint EU debt. As a result, Germany is slowly losing one of its last competitive advantages: its superior credit rating. The risk premium on EU bonds relative to German Bunds has narrowed sharply in recent weeks". Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

The gap between buying and renting isn't just growing—it’s exploding. The latest data from the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index (2015–2025) reveals a massive divergence. If you’re an investor, homeowner, or renter, you need to see these numbers: 🚀 The Rocket Ship: Miami Miami is in a league of its own. Real home prices have skyrocketed by 93.1%. Compare that to a modest 12.7% rent increase. The "Magic City" is officially the world's capital for capital appreciation. 🇪🇸 The Rental Crisis: Madrid While most of the world watches home prices, Madrid is seeing a rental surge like no other. Home Prices: +42.4% Rent Prices: +48.0% This is the steepest rental hike of any major global city, fueled by a massive tourism rebound and a booming short-term rental market. 📉 The Cooling Giants: London & Milan Not every "safe haven" stayed safe. London: Prices and rents have both dropped 10.5% since 2015. Between Brexit's shadow and a significant millionaire exodus, the luster is fading. Milan: A quiet decline, with property values down 4.9% and rents down 3%. 🥨 The Stability Zone: Zurich & Munich German-speaking hubs remain engines of growth. Both saw double-digit increases across the board: Zurich: +42.4% (Home) | +23.1% (Rent) Source: Visual Capitalist, Voronoi, UBS

Goldman's options guru John Marshall estimates that this December options expiration will be the largest ever with over $7.1 trillion of notional options exposure expiring, including $5.0 trillion of SPX options and $880 billion notional of single stock options. Source: zerohedge

$ORCL 🟢 +6.4% after hours. Source: Trend Spider

Rate hike? Yes. Market crash? No. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Here is why the "Carry Trade Collapse" everyone feared just got cancelled (for now). The Headline: The BOJ raised rates by 25 bps to 0.75%. It was priced in, expected, and delivered with a heavy dose of "don't panic." Why the markets are rallying: The BoJ basically told the world: "We’re raising rates, but we aren't pulling the rug." Real Rates stay LOW: The BOJ explicitly stated that real interest rates will remain at significantly low levels. This is classic Financial Repression. Accommodative Stance: Even with the hike, the monetary environment remains "supportive." They are still cheering for the economy. The Stimulus Paradox: While the BOJ lifts rates, the Japanese government is simultaneously releasing a massive stimulus package. The "Risk-On" Reaction: Usually, a rate hike strengthens a currency. But today? The Yen is weakening. 📉 This is the "Green Light" for risk assets. If the Yen doesn't spike, the Yen Carry Trade doesn't unwind. The result: Equities: UP 📈 Bitcoin: UP 🚀 Bond Yields: UP 📊 (10 year ABOVE 2%) Yen: DOWN (156) The Takeaway: Governor Ueda is playing a dangerous game of balance, but for today, he’s the market's best friend. Liquidity is still flowing, the "cheap money" isn't disappearing overnight, and the global carry trade lives to see another day. Is this the "Goldilocks" scenario for the end of 2025, or is the market ignoring a looming Yen spike? Source: FinancialJuice @financialjuice SWING BLASTER 🥷🕉️🔱 @swing_blaster

Here is the breakdown of what is going on: 1. The $100 Billion Life Raft 💰 OpenAI is reportedly looking to raise a staggering $100B (Source: WSJ). With a target valuation of $830B, this isn't just a fundraising round—it’s a geopolitical event. Sam Altman isn't just looking for "growth capital"; he’s securing a bridge to 2030 profitability. 2. From Debt to Equity 📉 Private credit markets (like Blue Owl) have been tightening the taps on AI infrastructure. OpenAI is pivoting from cheaper debt to massive equity dilution. Why? Because when you’re "incinerating" cash to build the future, you need a sovereign-sized safety net. 3. The Oracle "Survival" Surge 🚀 This isn't just about OpenAI. This cash flows directly into compute. Oracle and CoreWeave are the primary beneficiaries. This funding ensures OpenAI can pay its hyperscaler partners for years to come. The market is breathing a sigh of relief: Bankruptcy risks for AI infrastructure plays are evaporating. 4. The Credit Default Swap (CDS) Collapse 📉 Before tonight, Oracle’s CDS was at a 16-year high (~156bps). Investors were pricing in serious risk. Now? We expect a short-covering frenzy. The "AI winter" just got hit by a heatwave of Emirati capital. The Bottom Line: The world was waiting for the US to backstop the AI revolution. Instead, Abu Dhabi stepped up. This $100B injection doesn't just fund a chatbot; it stabilizes the entire AI ecosystem for the next 24 months. Is this the start of the 2025 bull run, or just a very expensive bridge to the unknown?

$ORCL has now plunged 48% since its all-time high on September 10, a total market cap loss of $475 Billion 📉📉 Note that the stock is UP 6% after-markets on TikTok deal + OpenAI securing $100B in funding from UAE sovereign wealth fund. Source: Barchart @Barchart

Source: Barchart