Private Credit Faces Early-Year Withdrawal Pressure
In Q1, wealthy investors requested over $10B from major private credit funds. Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are limiting withdrawals to ~70%. Apollo, Ares, and Goldman Sachs will report soon. Though small relative to $1.5T in direct lending, private credit’s fast growth and $9T U.S. retirement exposure mean liquidity strains could test the model’s foundations. Temporary squeeze or early warning? Source: FT
Nice infographic on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.
Source: S&P Global
With buybacks stepping away, downside moves become more exposed.
McCullen: "We are expecting the next blackout window to begin this week ~3/18, estimating ~45% of the S&P 500 to be in blackout by that point, assuming entry 6 weeks prior to earnings ... We expect blackout to run through the end of April." Source: TME
Oil-equity correlations break during oil supply shocks
Source: zerohedge JP Morgan
Dollar and the oil crisis
Last time it caught strong bids and squeezed for some 6 months. A similar move would tighten financial conditions quickly. Source. TS Lombard, TME
Swiss National Bank Signals Aggressive Currency Intervention
Amid global uncertainty, the Swiss franc surges, pressuring exports and keeping inflation at 0.1%. The SNB plans aggressive intervention: selling francs and buying foreign currencies to weaken the franc. This may trigger U.S. tensions due to past manipulation accusations and tariffs. Switzerland faces a dilemma: protect its economy or avoid political backlash, highlighting how central banks now navigate inflation, geopolitics, trade wars, and market psychology. Source: CNBC
This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. It’s the U.S. National Debt.
Source: Not Jerome Powell
🧠 The global oil market has split into two separate systems:
Asia: Paying very high prices (~$150+/barrel) US/West: Paying much lower prices (~$95–$105/barrel) T This as an unprecedented “broken” market driven by geopolitics, not normal supply/demand. ⚠️ Main Reasons Strait of Hormuz disruption: A major shipping route (≈20% of global oil supply) is allegedly blocked or restricted. Geopolitical tensions (Iran): Seen as the key player controlling whether supply resumes. Emergency reserves released: Large releases from global and US reserves are being used to stabilize prices. US reserves are described as historically low. 📊 Key Effects 1. Two-tier pricing system Countries with domestic oil (like the US) are better protected. Import-dependent Asian economies pay much more. 2. Economic strain in Asia High oil prices → rising costs → factories slowing or shutting down. Early signs of “demand destruction” (reduced consumption due to high prices). 3. Shrinking safety buffers Strategic oil reserves may only last weeks at current usage rates. Limited ability to replenish during conflict. 4. Rising US fuel prices Gas prices expected to increase significantly if oil rises further. 5. Inflation risk Higher energy costs could: Push inflation back up Force central banks to delay or reverse rate cuts 6. Iran’s leverage Iran is portrayed as holding decisive control over supply routes. Ongoing conflict reduces chances of quick resolution. Source: zerohedge
