Syz the moment

▶️ Corporate treasuries have surpassed ETFs in bitcoin buying for a third consecutive quarter as more companies try to benefit from the MicroStrategy playbook in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. ▶️Public companies acquired about 131,000 coins in the second quarter, growing their bitcoin balance 18%, according to data provider Bitcoin Treasuries. ETFs showed an 8% increase or about 111,000 BTC in the same period. ▶️Public company bitcoin holdings increased 4% in April, a tumultuous month after the market was rocked by President Donald Trump’s initial tariffs announcement, versus 2% for ETFs. Nick Marie, head of research at Ecoinometrics, suggested that 10 years from now, there probably won’t be so many companies committed to the bitcoin treasury strategy. Firstly, he said, the more that enter the category, the more diluted the activity at each firm becomes. Plus, bitcoin may be so normalized by then that proxy buyers are no longer constrained by rules and mandates around direct exposure to bitcoin. Source: CNBC

Prepare accordingly. Source: @CarlBMenger

The US-Vietnam trade deal is aimed at isolating China primarily by targeting the use of Chinese components in goods exported from Vietnam to the US. The deal imposes a tiered tariff system where Vietnamese exports containing Chinese inputs face higher tariffs—20% generally, and up to 40% on goods suspected of being transshipped from China through Vietnam with minimal processing. This is designed to prevent Chinese products from bypassing US tariffs by routing them through Vietnam, a practice that increased after earlier US-China trade tensions led companies to relocate production to Vietnam. The US strategy behind this deal is part of a broader effort to reshape global supply chains into "trusted" networks that exclude Chinese firms and reduce China's role in international trade. The Trump administration has pushed trading partners like Vietnam to cut back on imports from China and control their supply chains more tightly to avoid facilitating Chinese goods entering the US market indirectly.

So how can we explain such a comeback for this iconic company? It is primarily due to its successful transformation into a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) and hybrid cloud solutions, which has driven strong financial performance and investor confidence. Key factors behind this surge include: ▶️ Strong AI and Cloud Growth: IBM's AI business bookings have surged to over $5 billion, growing nearly $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, and its Red Hat subsidiary, a major hybrid cloud platform, grew 17% in a recent quarter and is expected to contribute $3 billion in revenue this year. This software-led strategy and expanding AI capabilities have been pivotal. ▶️Robust Financial Results: IBM reported solid earnings beats and a bullish 2025 forecast with expected revenue growth exceeding 5% and free cash flow growing even faster, targeting about $13 billion in free cash flow.

Better than gold.

Blackrock makes 0.25% fees on their IBIT ETF. That currently translates to $184 million in annual revenue (just for custody) and it's based on AUM (assets under management.) Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon

Source: Bloomberg, Mike Bird @Birdyword