Syz the moment

Source: Trend Spider

Meb Faber @MebFaber

The season kicks off this Friday with all eyes on the big banks. Over 50% of S&P 500 firms mentioned tariffs in their Q4 conference calls according to FactSet, could we see that number go higher? Source: Wall Street Horizon @WallStHorizon

The Trump administration may move to purposely dismantle dollar hegemony. Source: Philip Pilkington @philippilk

"It’s been a rough year so far for US equity markets, but we’ve been through much worse in the past and gotten through it. We’ll get through this as well. As Abraham Lincoln once said: This, too, shall pass.”

The US share in the global stock market has fallen 3-4 percentage points since its November 2024 peak of 67%. This comes as the US has significantly underperformed other markets this year. Many investors are not ready for this.. Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor

➡️ SocGen's Jitesh Kumar writes that high yields spreads remain below 4%, and "we have never been in recession with high yield spreads below 4.5% (data going back to 1987)." In other words, US HY credit spreads are pricing in 0% recession probability. ➡️ However while credit remains complacent, one asset is starting blast a recession warning siren: according to UBS trader Antonya Allen, the VIX is now pricing in a recession. Which one will be correct? Source: SocGen, www.zerohedge.com

Beijing just crossed a line in the sand. The PBOC fixing was on the other side of the closely watched 7.20 "devaluation" line, first time since 2023. Offshore yuan tumbles and is about to hit a record low against the USD. Source: zerohedge