Before you Sell in May, just remember this month has been higher 9 of the past 10 years.
Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
Global stocks are close to reversing all post "Liberation Day" losses
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
The Wall Street Journal on China's latest economic data:
"A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year." The sharp declines reflect both the "bring forward" to beat the US tariffs and the impact of these tariffs. Source: Mo El Erian on X, Macrobond
Only European Investors have been dumping U.S. Stocks 🚨
The rest of the world, including China, are buying 📈📈 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, EPFR
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year.
This probably assumes no recession, because if there is one, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates is likely. Source. Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%.
The final alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is -1.5% Source: Atlanta Fed
UPS has said it will cut 20,000 jobs this year and close more than 70 buildings
as the logistics group seeks to reduce costs and prepare for a halving in package volume from Amazon, its biggest customer. The job cuts will target workers responsible for delivering packages to customers and supporting UPS’s transportation and logistics services, and come after the group last year cut about 14,000 jobs, primarily in management roles. The latest reduction in headcount is part of UPS’s plan to boost efficiency and consolidate its US domestic network after it said in January it had reached an agreement in principle with its “largest customer” to lower its volume by the second half of 2026.
The Market Ear
EURUSD longer term chart right at the big negative trend line. The 200 weekly moving average is sloping negatively still...and the FX pair has done nothing since 2015. FX is a relative game, but getting excited about the euro here looks like a late short term trade
