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The Investing for Beginners Podcast @IFB_podcast
Will global sovereign bond yields soon catch-up with UST yields?
As highlighted by Mohamed El Erian >>> "The markets' initial reaction has been to focus on the likely US growth slowdown, thereby narrowing the yield differential of the US relative to other advanced economies and weakening the dollar. It is only a matter of time until markets realize that the "beta" of the rest of the world to lower US growth is much closer to 1, if not above 1. You know, it's the old saying: When the US catches a cold, the rest of the world risks something much worse". Source: FT
🚨Market volatility is skyrocketing as if there is A FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Volatility Index, $VIX, spiked to 59 points, the 4th highest level EVER. There were only three times when the VIX traded higher: - Great Financial Crisis - 2020 Crisis - August 2024 Flash Crash Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are crashing 5% in the session and are trading 22% below the peak (which means it is now in BEAR MARKET territory). Source: Global Markets Investor
$NVDA now 16.5x earnings
$GOOGL a P/E under 15x $AAPL $AMZN are almost market multiples Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
He seems to be going all-in...
And the market doesn't like it 😨 🔴 Dow Futures are down 1,000 points and Asia, Cryptos are a bloodbath
Markets are flashing a stagflation warning.
Goldman's long/short stagflation basket is up 27.5% YTD, while the SP500 has dropped nearly 10% over the same period. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
🔴 Breaking news:
China has announced it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on imports from the US in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by President Donald Trump this week as part of his aggressive trade agenda ▶️ The U.S. exported around $143.5 billion worth of goods to China in 2024. The category worth the most was electric machinery and sound equipment at $15.3 billion (up 31 percent from 2023). Aerospace products also saw a substantial increase year-on-year, up 69 percent to $11.5 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, mineral fuels and oilseeds and grains saw declines of 26 percent and 15 percent, respectively, since 2023. The U.S. has a trade deficit with China, meaning it imports more from China than it exports. Source: Statista, Mario Nawfal
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