Trump's message is simple: A deal happens on his terms, or it doesn't happen at all.
"A DEAL WILL ONLY BE MADE WHEN IT'S APPROPRIATE AND GOOD FOR THE UNITED STATES." "I am possibly the least pressured person ever. I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn't. The clock is ticking!" Trump says "the clock is ticking" for Iran and he has "all the time in the world" to make a deal. Says Iran's navy is "at the bottom of the sea," air force is "demolished," leaders are "no longer with us," and the blockade is "airtight."
Japan's core inflation accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March (versus +1.6% seen in February) as the Iran war fuels worries around energy prices.
The Core CPI number is matching forecasts and is staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank’s 2% target for a second straight month. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February’s 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Rising oil prices have prompted government subsidies to cap gasoline costs, though these may be expensive to sustain. Analysts warn prolonged high energy prices could push core inflation toward 3%, while weakening household purchasing power. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady for now but maintain a bias toward future hikes as inflation expectations rise and economic risks persist. Source: CNBC
Meet the first clear casualty of AI disruption: Chegg.
Once a go-to platform for homework help and textbook rentals, it’s now in steep decline—its stock has collapsed nearly 99%, trading under $1 with a market cap around $100 million. Revenue has fallen dramatically from its 2022 peak, signaling a rapid unraveling of its core business. The shift is simple: tools like ChatGPT didn’t just compete with Chegg—they made it obsolete. When students can get instant, high-quality answers for free (or far less), the old model struggles to survive. This isn’t just one company’s story—it’s a turning point where AI disruption became real, fast, and unforgiving. So the real question is: who’s next?
Bitcoin Breaking – And Nobody Cares (Yet)
The BTC vs NDX gap is the widest we have seen in a very long time. Source: TME
This is a short but important post by Trump.
It means that: 1) The war is over (and the extended ceasefire confirms it) 2) Trump is ok with walking away from Iran even without a deal, and letting the world clean up the Hormuz mess So yes, the war might be over. But the consequences of this war might be felt for a very long time.
S&P500 $SPX has surged right into the upper trend line in place since last autumn.
The perceived bull has been stronger than the actual bull in recent sessions. We’ve gone from undershooting to aggressively overshooting the 200-day MA, in a very one-directional move. Source: TME
*ANDURAND LOST 52% IN APRIL FIRST HALF AS CEASEFIRE HURT OIL BET
Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund lost 52% in the first few weeks of April and is now down 37% YTD Yikes. Probably don’t deserve to call it a hedge fund at this point. Clearly not much hedging going on for Pierre Source: Negligible Capital, Bloomberg
If you invested $10,000 in $CAR on Wednesday, Thursday night you would have $2,900 left...
Source: Brew markets
