🚨US stock market concentration has never been this extreme:
Semiconductor stocks now reflect 19.7% of the S&P 500's total market cap, the most EVER. This figure has QUADRUPLED since June 2020. As a result, every other sector combined now accounts for just 80.3% of the index, the lowest share EVER. Meanwhile, the semiconductor index, $SOX, is trading now ~70% above its 200-day moving average, the widest divergence since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. How much further can this concentration stretch before something breaks? Source: Global Markets Investor
AI ECONOMICS: The bill for “tokenmaxxing” just came due.
Meta’s employees ran up a staggering internal AI bill in a single month. The number is reshaping how Big Tech thinks about the cost of intelligence.
Trump's updated portfolio
heavy on semiconductors (10% NVIDIA, 4.5% Qualcomm, 4% Micron, and 5% Intel) Source: Rand Group
JUST IN: President Trump on CNBC:
"The stock market is at an all-time high. 81 days, 81 records. Nobody's ever seen anything like it." "They have this phobia about inflation. Growth can be good for inflation. It's a shame."
US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k.
Unemployment fell to 4.2% for the wrong reason: participation cratered to 61.5% from 61.8%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz Bloomberg
There goes credit:
CRWV, ORCL CDS blow out to 2 month wides. AMZN, GOOG, MSFT drifting wider; SpaceX at 141, up 31bps since breaking last week. Source: zerohedge
Here are the top 10 most valuable European private tech firms, that are yet to be acquired or go public
Data as of 29 June 2026 Source: Sebastiaan Vaessen, X Multiples
One more push?
SOX broke below the short-term trendline earlier this week and is now approaching both the 50-day moving average and the lower end of its recent trading range. Chasing momentum breakouts in either direction has been a costly strategy since mid-May, as mean reversion has consistently dominated. RSI has now fallen to its most oversold level since late May. Source: TME
