S&P 500 $SPX now trading at the very top of its 8-year trend line
Source: Barchart
China just took the lead for the first time in modern history.
The AI race isn't being won in headlines. It's being won in research budgets. Source: Rand Group
Goldman: We estimate that AI investment will drive roughly 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth this year, and just a few Tech stocks have driven the majority of recent index EPS revisions.
Our EPS forecasts this year and next are close to the top-down strategist consensus. Risks to our forecasts are two-sided, but AI skews those risks to the upside. Source: Neil Sethi
China’s real residential property prices crashed to their lowest level on record hitting 20 year low
Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows the index dropped to 86.79 in Q4 2025, down from 88.85 in the previous quarter. The index has now declined steadily from its peak of 112.99 in September 2021 marking a 21.5% correction in China’s housing market. The latest reading is also the lowest level since records began in 2005 signaling continued weakness across the property sector. Real estate has been the primary repository of life savings for hundreds of millions of Chinese households. Yet roughly 85 percent of the price gains that underpinned that wealth creation have evaporated since 2021. Sales and prices continue to slide, while an estimate of 80 Million unsold or vacant homes clog the market and many of the country’s largest private developers have defaulted on debts Source: Bull Theory
These are the S&P 500’s top 10 performers based on year-to-date (YTD) performance:
1. 🇺🇸 Sandisk Corporation (SNDK): 317% 2. 🇺🇸 Lumentum Holdings (LITE): 139% 3. 🇺🇸 Western Digital (WDC): 134% 4. 🇺🇸 Intel Corporation (INTC): 124% 5. 🇺🇸 Ciena Corporation (CIEN): 123% 6. 🇺🇸 Teradyne (TER): 116% 7. 🇺🇸 Seagate Technology (STX): 113% 8. 🇺🇸 Coherent Inc. (COHR): 101% 9. 🇺🇸 Vertiv Holdings (VRT): 100% 10. 🇺🇸 Comfort Systems USA (FIX): 85% Source: Stocks World
Market based inflation expectations are rising across the curve (1,2,5,10 year).
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
42% of the S&P 500 companies report earnings this week
Source: zerohedge, BofA
Globally, less than 5% of the MSCI All-Country is at 52-week highs (despite the index at ATHs)
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
