⚠️Bank of Japan is getting closer to deliver another rate hike:
Inflation has picked up while wages have jumped to the highest level in at least 3 DECADES. The market is pricing in about a 60% probability of a hike next week, and an 82% chance by March. Remember when in August 2024 the market flash crashed by suddenly waking up to BOJ's rate hikes? This is key to watch. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, The Daily Shot
A stunning chart by Goldman: the outperformance of US productivity growth is remarkable, particularly in the COVID/post-COVID era.
Source: GS, Tony Pasquariello, Giovanni Pierdomenico
Actual S&P 500 earnings growth has exceeded expectations during the last few years.
Will it be the case again this quarter? Source: The Market Ear, Factset
A good chart from GS that shows how sectors & factors may react to change in 10Y bond yields.
Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA, Goldman Sachs
Musk’s company SpaceX is dominating the industry, responsible for a skyrocketing ~65% of the total licensed commercial launches in the US since its founding.
Blue Origin’s total launch count since its inception is only 16% of what SpaceX managed in 2024 alone. Source: Chartr
Spain proposes 100% tax on property purchases for non-EU buyers.
Spain is planning to impose a 100 per cent tax on real estate purchases for buyers from non-EU countries such as the UK in a bid to improve housing affordability by deterring foreign purchases. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced the plan for the punitive property tax, which would apply to non-EU citizens who are not residents of the bloc, as part of a raft of measures aimed at tackling a “grave” housing crisis. Spain is one of many European countries where public anger is mounting over the difficulty of finding affordable housing to buy or rent as property prices soar and new construction lags far behind demand. Source: FT
"....the selloff in US bonds is driving yields higher everywhere, including in economies where the growth outlook hasn’t improved.
Of course, this second point isn't hard to explain. US Treasuries act a generic riskfree asset for the global financial system. When US yields move higher, it creates pressure on bonds everywhere." - TS Lombard, Perkins thru The Market Ear
Markets do not like interest rate uncertainty: Stocks and long-term bonds have declined for 5-straight weeks, the longest streak in at least 13 months.
During this period, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has fallen 4.2% to the lowest since November 6th, a day after the Presidential election. At the same time, the popular bond tracking ETF, $TLT, has dropped 9.1% to the lowest since May 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
