The $VIX spiked 74% higher yesterday, the 2nd biggest 1-day % increase in history
Volatility is back. Source Charlie Bilello
🔈 BANK OF JAPAN JUST MADE THEIR INTEREST RATE DECISION: THEY WILL NOT BE RAISING INTEREST RATES. This is a relief for markets 👍
🚨 If Japan hiked rates, the US Dollar would weaken against the Yen. Anyone who is short the Yen then would have to sell off US equities in order to cover their short, which could've caused a decline in stocks. Most of those stocks would have been tech stocks. It also could have caused a sell off in Bitcoin as many people have borrowed against the Yen to put money into crypto. Basically it would be another edition of the Yen Carry trade which still has trillions of dollars tied into it. 😊 On a day like today, bulls really needed Japan to NOT raise rates. USD/JPY after the decision, up 0.27% Source: @amitisinvesting
🚨FROM THE MOST EUPHORIC MARKET IN HISTORY TO A COMPLETE BLOODBATH IN 2 HOURS🚨
US stocks, Gold and Bitcoin massacred after the Fed cut rates by 0.25% and expect fewer cuts in 2025 and 2026 due to inflation concerns. VIX and US dollar spiked. Performance yesterday: S&P 500 -3.0% - biggest drop since March 2020 CRASH Nasdaq -3.6% Russell 2000 -4.7% Dow Jones -2.6% Bitcoin -5.5% Bank Index -4.2% VIX +54% front mth futures VIX +17% Gold -2.2% Silver -3.3% WTI Crude Oil -0.9% Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor
US BANKS UNDER PRESSURE
With Powell stating that there won’t be significant rate cuts next year and the yield curve un- inverting along with BTFP going away banks were hammered yesterday as most of them have BILLIONS worth of unrealized LOSSES in BONDS. Source: The Coastal Journal
Powell is second to none when it comes to market reaction on Fed day.
He lived up to his reputation and track record yesterday. To say the least... Source: Bespoke
‼️AHEAD OF THE FED MEETING YESTERDAY, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WERE ALL-IN ON US STOCKS AND CASH ALLOCATION AT RECORD LOW ‼️
Institutional investors* cash allocation hit the lowest level ON RECORD. This comes as allocation to US equities hit a RECORD HIGH. What will happen when stocks begin to drop? *171 Fund Managers with $450 billion in assets Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
BREAKING - Trump tells NBC he'd support abolishing the debt ceiling, calling it 'the smartest thing Congress could do' and suggesting it's more psychological than practical.
President-elect Donald Trump expressed support for abolishing the debt ceiling, calling it a "meaningless concept" that Congress should eliminate entirely. Speaking to NBC News, Trump suggested that removing the debt ceiling would be the "smartest thing" lawmakers could do and offered to lead the charge if Democrats pursue it. He also criticized a recent funding deal reached by Congress, labeling it a "Democrat trap" and questioning House Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership. Trump suggested a potential government shutdown could help set the stage for his administration, and revealed he had discussed the funding deal with Elon Musk, aligning their views on cost-related issues. Source GNF - Global News First
Bitcoin is still tracking global M2 with a ~70-day lag.
Two scenarios: dislocate from global M2 thanks to BTC-native buy side, or continue following it into a deep mid-cycle correction. Source: Joe Consorti, Bloomberg
