Map of the actual size of each country
Source: Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap
Gas storage levels in Germany continue declining.
They are now down to just 72.9% of full, significantly below the average for recent years. Gas prices rise accordingly by 4.3% this morning. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
An interesting Graph📈
The US has a big generational divide on willingness to fight for their country if it came to a war. The young are considerably less willing to do so than the old. This is different from most other countries. Source: @rubenbmathisen on X
In Germany, Chancellor Scholz attempts to boost his campaign by appealing to anti-American sentiment.
He steps up criticism of Trump’s expansionist rhetoric. Currently, Scholz's SPD is trailing in third place, behind the CDU/CSU and AfD. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Insured losses from the California wildfires are estimated to be the highest ever
Source: Markets & Mayhem
One of Morgan Stanley 2025 Theme is the Future of energy:
"In 2025, our focus shifts from hashtag#decarbonization to the wide range of factors driving the supply, demand, and delivery of hashtag#energy across geographies. The common thread is the potential for rapid evolution. Four key dynamics: (1) an increasing focus on energy security; (2) the massive growth in energy demand driven by trillions of dollars of hashtag#AI hashtag#infrastructure spend, to be met by both fossil fuel-powered plants and hashtag#renewables; (3) innovative hashtag#energy hashtag#technologies such as carbon capture, energy storage, nuclear power, and power grid optimization; and (4) increased electrification across many industries. Relatedly, we continue to believe that carbon emissions will likely exceed the targets in various nations’ climate pledges. Hence, we expect focus to shift toward climate adaptation and resilience technologies/business models". Source: Morgan Stanley, zerohedge
A turn in the trend? US 10-year Treasury yield has risen ~440 basis points over the last 5 years to 4.76%.
If this trend continues that will materially shift the investing landscape with many investors being caught off guard. Source. Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor
🚨 Great chart and post by James Bianco about US 10-year TIPS breakeven during inflationary time.
👉 The chart below shows the 10-year TIPS breakeven. The LEFT part of the line in RED shows the first 115 days after the Fed started HIKING in 2022. Expectations went straight DOWN. See the RIGHT part of the line in RED, the first 115 days after the Fed started CUTTING in September. Expectations are going straight UP and are at a 15-month high. 👉 Restated, the Fed hikes and inflation expectations GO DOWN. The Fed cuts and inflation expectations GO UP. This is classic "inflationary environment" behavior. 👉Markets were disappointed that the Fed did not cut enough is a previous cycle (pre-2020) reaction. This cycle (post-2020) is about dealing with inflation, and cutting is NOT dealing with inflation. Source: Bianco Research
