Breadth matters. And what we currently see on us equities does not look healthy.
Here is a visual of the % of stocks outperforming the S&P500: ALL TIME LOWS. In other words, concentration risk measured in this way beats 2000 lows. Source: Samantha LaDuc on X, GS
Year 1 of the presidential election cycle is not that great, but still decent. 1928-2024 $SPX
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Storytelling is a high ROI skill.
But it's massively overlooked (in life and business). 11 storytelling tips to accelerate your career by Ben Meer @SystemSunday on X:
GS: The US has a valuation at its 20-year peak and this remains true even if we exclude the largest technology companies
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Mag 7 EPS vs SPX last 20 years
Source: GS, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Who owns Bitcoin? Estimated distribution... $BTC
Source: Charlie Bilello
2024 is shaping up to be a big year for privately-held companies, with over 1,200 unicorns globally, up from just 590 in 2021!
(A "unicorn" refers to privately held companies valued at over one billion dollars). Leading the charge is ByteDance (TikTok's parent) at a whopping $220B 💰, followed by SpaceX 🚀 at $180B and OpenAI 🤖 at $100B. Noticeably, the US and China lead the world in both the number of unicorns and their combined market value. Source: Genuine impact
There have been many definitions of fiscal dominance over the years, but one that explains it well comes from Daniel J. Ford:
"Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that occurs when a country’s debt and deficit levels are sufficiently high that monetary policy ceases to be an effective tool for controlling inflation. In fact, persistently high interest rates in an environment of perpetually large deficits actually risk exacerbating inflation". Another definition: "Fiscal dominance occurs when fiscal deficits become as significant as, or more important than, private sector lending and monetary policy in driving economic activity". Source: Lyn Alden
