Mortgage demand is collapsing:
US mortgage applications for single-family homes fell 3.7% last week, marking their 4th consecutive weekly decline. As a result, the mortgage demand index has fallen to the lowest since February 2024 and its 3rd lowest level in nearly 30 years. The index has now fallen a whopping -63% over the last 4 years. This comes as home financing costs have rapidly surged while prices remain at all-time highs. Since mid-September, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen ~110 basis points and are back above 7%. Mortgage demand is at 1990s levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, MBA Purchase index
Government spending is now half of the economy in most of the developed world....
Source: The Long View @HayekAndKeynes
US Small-Business Optimism Hits Highest Since 2018 Post Election
- Bloomberg thru Christophe Barraud on X
BlackRock is eating the world:
Assets Under Management (AUM) grew by 15% to hit a fresh ATH at $11.55tn. BlackRock has raised $641bn in investor funds in 2024. Tally includes $390bn flowing into its ETF business overall, $226bn into equity funds, and $164bn into fixed-income. Source Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Good news are coming... while US Q4 earnings season is off to a strong start thanks to banks beating estimates, US inflation numbers came in somewhat cooler than expected:
Core CPI slows to 3.2% in December from 3.3% in November. Analysts had expected the rate to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Overall CPI is unchanged at 2.9% as forecasted. Headline CPI inflation is up for 3 straight months, but core inflation is falling again. It seems enough to please investors: S&P 500 futures are surging over +85 points - the equivalent of a $750B market cap gain - as 10y US bond yields are tumbling by 10 basis points. The dollar is easing, gold is shining and cryptos is surging with bitcoin back to $99K. Alles gut... Source: Bloomberg
On this day of 2015, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) discontinued the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 EUR/CHF...
This "quasi-peg" level never got revisited. Meanwhile, the 0.95 new support level does not seem to hold. Today we trade at 94 cents and many traders do have 90 cents in mind. And even much lower levels... Good luck... Source chart: Brian Reutimann
JPMorgan $JPM reported earnings
EPS of $4.84 beating expectations of $4.11 Revenue of $43.7B beating expectations of $41.7B Jamie Dimon added … “two significant risks remain. Ongoing and future spending requirements will likely be inflationary, and therefore, inflation may persist for some time. Additionally, geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since World War II” Source: App Economy Insights
SP500 companies’ revenue per worker.
Source: Eugene Ng on X, BofA
