China Jet Fuel Demand Set To Soar Ahead Of Lunar New Year
China's oil demand could surge as it reopens after scraping zero Covid restrictions. Beijing's Covid curbs weighed on crude and refined products demand for three years. Soaring air travel demand ahead of the Lunar New Year is yet more evidence fuel demand is gathering steam. China's easing of border restrictions imposed almost three years ago has been a recent boon for air travel, domestically and internationally. There are no more mandatory quarantines for travelers arriving in China. BloombergNEF said jet fuel demand is rising in China ahead of the holidays. They noted that scheduled passenger flights for Jan 10 to 16 indicate jet fuel demand has reached about 0.61 million barrels per day (mbpd), rising 0.10 mbpd compared with a week earlier. Then by next week, jet fuel demand could increase to 0.72 mbpd. This would mark the highest demand for Chinese jet fuel in more than 1.5 years. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Recession risk - Bloomberg’s monthly global growth tracker drops to 0.1%
Bloomberg Economics Global GDP Tracker Source: Bloomberg TV
Global Supply Chain Stress is easing
Source: Bloomberg
Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate..
-Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Mar 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... Source: Charlie Bilello
Global Venture Capital investment in digital asset start-ups
Crypto venture investments dips further post-FTX collapse Source: Bloomberg
Another sign of economic growth softening in the US?
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to Second-Weakest Since 2013 - Bloomberg
Microsoft is in talks to acquire a 49% stake in ChatGPT owner OpenAI
OpenAI is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation and is allowing employees along with early investors to sell their shares at that valuation. Microsoft has already invested $1bn into the company in 2019 and is now looking to invest another $10B into OpenAI. Microsoft would receive 75% of OpenAI’s income until it has recovered its initial investment. Once they hit that threshold, they would have a 49% stake in OpenAI, with other investors taking another 49% and OpenAI's nonprofit parent getting 2%. Open AI are expected to generate ~1 Billion in revenue in 2024. Source: Finimize Image: The first day of OpenAI, 7 years ago (by Sam Altman)
What is the US real footprint?
US is punching well above its weight, Ruchir Sharma says. US stock market value has reached 60% of global total, which is 15% higher than its long-term average. But the US real footprint much smaller: ~50% of corpate earnings, 25% of world GDP, 1/5th of listed companies and 4% of global population. Source: FT, HolgerZ
