Her's why crack spreads are surging everywhere... Russia's refining system is showing real signs of strain.
Russian refinery throughput fell to just 3.8 million barrels per day in June, down 1.5 million bpd from the start of 2026. For comparison, refinery runs during 2023–2025 were consistently around 5.0–5.7 million bpd at this point in the year. Then came April 2026. Throughput collapsed—and has yet to recover. The key driver? Ukrainian drone strikes appear to have inflicted more immediate damage on Russia's refining capacity than years of Western sanctions. The impact extends far beyond Russia. With fewer Russian refined products reaching global markets, diesel and other fuel supplies have tightened, helping drive crack spreads sharply higher. Sometimes the clearest signal isn't the price of crude—it's what refiners can no longer produce. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
JP MORGAN $JPM
Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $58.02B (Est. $51.39B) 🟢; +27% YoY 🔹 EPS: $7.70 (Est. $5.72) 🟢; incl. $1.56/share from significant items 🔹 NII: $25.62B (Est. $25.64B) 🟡; +10% YoY 🔹 Net Charge-Offs: $2.37B (Est. $2.62B) 🟢 🔹 Investment Banking: $3.9B (Est. $3.06B) 🟢; +45% YoY 🔹 Equities S&T: $6.03B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +86% YoY 🔹 FICC S&T: $6.05B (Est. $6.29B) 🔴; +6% YoY Other Metrics: 🔹 Loans: $1.54T (Est. $1.52T) 🟢 🔹 Total Deposits: $2.71T (Est. $2.69T) 🟢 🔹 AUM: $5.1T; +18% YoY Segment Performance: 🔹 Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: $20.27B; +8% YoY 🔹 Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: $24.85B; +27% YoY 🔹 Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: $6.85B; +19% YoY Financials: 🔹 Net Income: $21.2B; +41% YoY 🔹 Provision for Credit Losses: $2.52B 🔹 ROE: 24% (Est. 18%) 🟢 🔹 ROTCE: 29% 🔹 Standardized CET1 Ratio: 14.1% Capital Return: 🔹 Dividend: $1.50/share 🔹 Buybacks: $6.2B of common stock net repurchases 🔹 Authorization: New $50B buyback program effective July 1, 2026 Source: Wall St Engine
Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board.
US Headline inflation (CPI) comes in lower than expected, at 3.5% vs expected 3.8%. This is the biggest drop in MoM headline CPI (-0.4%) since covid crash. It is also much lower than expected (-0.1%). Core CPI is also the lowest since covid at +2.6% yoy (vs. +2.8% expected). The core CPI *declined* on a MoM basis, falling -0.02%. This is the first MoM drop since May 2020. Source: Bloomberg
US 2 year yield is tumbling -7 basis points as US CPI number came in cooler than expected.
Odds of a July rate hike are now 14% (vs. 45% this morning). Source: www.investing.com, CME Fed Watch tool
SK Hynix has now plunged 40% from its all-time high just a few weeks ago
Source: zerohedge
THIS WEEK COULD RESHAPE THE FUTURE OF CRYPTO.
Two major structural catalysts are approaching. • Monday: The Senate returns, and the CLARITY Act enters its final push before the August recess. If passed, it would split crypto oversight between the CFTC and SEC, protect DeFi developers, and permanently ban a federal CBDC. • Wednesday: DTCC targets its first limited production tokenization trades. The firm behind $114T+ in cleared assets is bringing stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries on-chain with backing from BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. Regulatory clarity. Institutional tokenization. Both converging in the same week. Source: Crypto Rover
South Korea's KOSPI stock market trading has been halted for 20 minutes after crashing -8%.
Over ₩488,000,000,000,000 ($328 BILLION) has been wiped out from South Korean stocks today. Source: Bull Theory
Update (7/12 PM): The tape keeps thinning
7 commercial crossings in the last 24h (5 E→W / 2 W→E), down from 11 yesterday and barely ~6% of the Jan–Feb run-rate. Brent's grinding higher, ~$78.79 and climbing as the closure prices in. Flow down, crude up Source: @TheTerminal Michael McDonough
