Private credit exploded over the past decade
Source: The Icahnist
The biggest elephant in the room IS NOT stocks, it is the bond market
The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked +13 basis points on Friday to 4.38%, the 2nd-largest single-day jump since the April 2025 Liberation Day sell-off. Since early March, the 10-year yield has surged +45 basis points, the fastest rise in nearly a year. The bond market sell-off is being driven by soaring oil prices fueling inflation fears, hawkish signals from the Fed and Bank of England, and hedge funds being forced to unwind leveraged bond trades at a loss. If yields rise another 20 to 30 basis points from here, it could trigger a liquidation cascade across all asset classes as institutional trading desks would have no choice but to slash risk exposure, similarly to April 2025. Source: Global Markets Investor
Energy power depends on infrastructure, not reserves
In 2026, global gas reserves tell a misleading story: Russia, Iran, and Qatar hold over 50% of reserves, yet disruptions, sanctions, and conflict limit output. The US, with only ~5% of reserves, dominates through operational export terminals, LNG shipping, and intact infrastructure. The lesson: energy power comes from extraction, processing, and logistics not the size of reserves. Gas in the ground or stranded by damaged infrastructure holds no real value; the strategic asset is functional infrastructure. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Gold drops signal rising market stress
In just three hours, gold fell ~$400, silver ~14%, erasing ~$2 trillion, defying its usual “safe haven” role amid geopolitical tension. This unusual behavior suggests large institutions may be raising cash quickly, liquidity is valued over safety, and hidden market stress could be building. Concurrently, oil retraced gains, futures remain stable, and insider selling has been heavy. Together, these signs indicate that markets react to pressure more than headlines, and even traditionally safe assets can be sold. Source: LimitLess
When Oil Spikes, Food Prices Tend To Follow
Source: Tracy Shuchart
The S&P 500 Technology sector is now trading below last year’s tariff-selloff lows.
As a result, Tech trades at a 21% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio and 10% below its 10-year average, making it the most discounted sector in the S&P 500. Source: Duality Research @DualityResearch
Traders Turn Positive on US dollar for First Time This Year
Source: Bloomberg
Was gold crash led by Hedge Funds?
Gold and silver prices are CRASHING: Gold is down -24% since its peak, erasing 2026 gains and falling back to December levels. Silver prices are down -47%, also down to mid-December levels. Both precious metal prices are approaching their 200-day moving averages. Massive liquidations across major assets continue. Meanwhile, a CFTC report shows hashtag#hedgefunds significantly increased their hashtag#gold hashtag#short positions, adding about $1.55–1.6 billion in new bets against gold. Around the same time, gold prices dropped sharply (from ~$4,520 to ~$4,100 in 72 hours), suggesting the selling pressure may be linked to this positioning. Hedge funds now hold a large total short position (~$23 billion), indicating strong bearish bets. Gold’s price drop may currently be driven less by fundamentals and more by positioning and coordinated behavior of large traders, meaning prices are being influenced by market pressure from leveraged players, not just underlying economic factors. Source: Wimar.X @DefiWimar
