Will this time be different?
Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB
Despite the rally, energy stocks remain under-owned and not expensive vs. history.
Source: BofA, RBC
Finally some TACO ?
Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
The euro has sold off aggressively in the wake of the Iran war.
We briefly bounced at the range lows, but the move has been weak and lacks follow-through. Now sitting well below the 200-day moving average, with the 21-day crossing lower, a bearish shift in trend dynamics. Last time this setup played out, the euro didn’t stabilize, it continued the move lower. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Private Credit Faces Early-Year Withdrawal Pressure
In Q1, wealthy investors requested over $10B from major private credit funds. Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are limiting withdrawals to ~70%. Apollo, Ares, and Goldman Sachs will report soon. Though small relative to $1.5T in direct lending, private credit’s fast growth and $9T U.S. retirement exposure mean liquidity strains could test the model’s foundations. Temporary squeeze or early warning? Source: FT
