The next 24 hours could be extremely volatile! supreme court tariff ruling is expected today at 10:00 am et
Markets price a 71% chance that courts rule Trump’s tariffs illegal, raising the prospect of $600B+ in refunds and significant market uncertainty. A non-consensus view argues the opposite outcome is more likely: keeping the tariffs may be less disruptive than reversing them. U.S. businesses have already adapted by restructuring supply chains, repricing goods, and adjusting investment plans, so a sudden rollback could punish those who adjusted and reward those who didn’t. Early fears of runaway inflation, collapsing earnings, and stalled growth have not materialized. Striking down the tariffs would also create legal and fiscal uncertainty around refunds and replacement measures, increasing volatility. Once embedded, tariffs function as a fiscal revenue tool, not just trade policy. Bottom line: The court may prioritize the least disruptive outcome—maintaining or modifying tariffs rather than eliminating them outright. Source: Cassian @ConvexDispatch, @BobEUnlimited
Gold has now outperformed the S&P 500 for 6 consecutive months, the longest streak since the Global Financial Crisis
Source: Barchart
US government interest payments are now up to an annualized record of $1.47 trillion.
The Sovereignty Trap: By offshoring industry to China for higher margins, the West traded its independence for cheap labor; China now controls the minerals essential for Defense, EVs, and tech. Resource vs. Currency: The ability to print money is irrelevant if China refuses to sell the raw materials required for survival and industry. The Great Rebuild: To regain independence, Western nations are aggressively reshoring industry, stockpiling minerals, and rebuilding infrastructure. The Irony of Tech: Building the "New Economy" (Silicon Valley, AI, Green Tech) is impossible without massive amounts of "Old Economy" materials like copper, lithium, and steel. Source: Topdown charts, LSEG, Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
Average customer account size at Robinhood vs peers
The Sovereignty Trap: By offshoring industry to China for higher margins, the West traded its independence for cheap labor; China now controls the minerals essential for Defense, EVs, and tech. Resource vs. Currency: The ability to print money is irrelevant if China refuses to sell the raw materials required for survival and industry. The Great Rebuild: To regain independence, Western nations are aggressively reshoring industry, stockpiling minerals, and rebuilding infrastructure. The Irony of Tech: Building the "New Economy" (Silicon Valley, AI, Green Tech) is impossible without massive amounts of "Old Economy" materials like copper, lithium, and steel. Source: Topdown charts, LSEG, Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
The commodity supercycle is back
The Sovereignty Trap: By offshoring industry to China for higher margins, the West traded its independence for cheap labor; China now controls the minerals essential for Defense, EVs, and tech. Resource vs. Currency: The ability to print money is irrelevant if China refuses to sell the raw materials required for survival and industry. The Great Rebuild: To regain independence, Western nations are aggressively reshoring industry, stockpiling minerals, and rebuilding infrastructure. The Irony of Tech: Building the "New Economy" (Silicon Valley, AI, Green Tech) is impossible without massive amounts of "Old Economy" materials like copper, lithium, and steel. Source: Topdown charts, LSEG, Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
Gold is flooding out of the US at a record pace
US non-monetary gold exports surged to a record $17.1 BILLION in October. This refers to physical bullion shipped for investment, jewelry, and industrial use, not central bank reserves. This marks an unprecedented spike compared with the typical ~$1–3B monthly range over the last 15 years. The surge reflects soaring demand for hard assets as investors hedge against currency weakness, geopolitical tensions, and trade-policy uncertainty. Truly unprecedented. Source: Global Markets Investor
Long EM. Short US large caps.
Is the Dalio playbook about to break out? Source: Trend Spider
CPI: 2.7% YoY vs. 2.7% expected Core CPI: 2.6% YoY vs. 2.7% expected
Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad measure of the costs for goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the headline all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations. Source: CNBC Peter Tuchman, @EinsteinoWallSt
